Thu, Dec 18, 2025·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Pittsburgh Penguins 0, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 08 | 04 | 013 | 025 |
| OTT | 17 | 212 | 17 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:16OTTBrady TkachukPPGWGAssists: Drake Batherson, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
- P2 1:34OTTDavid PerronAssists: Jordan Spence, Drake Batherson · Deflected, 0.17 xG0–2
- P2 4:50OTTClaude GirouxAssists: Michael Amadio, Ridly Greig · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–3
- P3 13:55OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Fabian Zetterlund, Nick Jensen · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:18PITArturs Silovs: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 17:49OTTNikolas Matinpalo: Interference2 min
- P2 8:11OTTClaude Giroux: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:21PITTommy Novak: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 19:06PITAnthony Mantha: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Greig
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Rakell13:53
xG 0.77–0.45 (63%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Hayes – McGroarty – Kindel12:09
xG 0.16–0.23 (41%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Heinen – Acciari – Dewar7:03
xG 0.26–0.33 (44%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Mantha – Novak – Brazeau9:56
xG 0.17–0.64 (21%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Wotherspoon15:18
xG 0.75–0.33 (69%)attempts 22–9goals 0–1
- Kulak – St. Ivany14:58
xG 0.15–0.49 (23%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Letang – Shea16:30
xG 0.48–0.97 (33%)attempts 17–18goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestZetterlund – Tkachuk – Stützle10:08
xG 0.63–0.09 (87%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Perron – Batherson – Cozens8:24
xG 0.26–0.18 (59%)attempts 2–10goals 1–0
- Cousins – Zetterlund – Halliday2:05
xG 0.08–0.08 (50%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Cousins – Batherson – Halliday2:26
xG 0.09–0.10 (46%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpence – Kleven13:20
xG 0.76–0.20 (79%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Sanderson – Zub15:34
xG 0.64–0.58 (52%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Jensen – Matinpalo15:44
xG 0.11–0.41 (21%)attempts 6–21goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).