Sat, Dec 20, 2025·Capital One Arena, Washington
Detroit Red Wings 5, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 117 | 314 | 110 | 541 |
| WSH | 06 | 19 | 111 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:05DETJohn LeonardAssists: Simon Edvinsson, Andrew Copp · Snap, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 1:37DETJames van RiemsdykAssists: Moritz Seider, Andrew Copp · Snap, 0.28 xG2–0
- P2 5:55DETElmer SoderblomGWGAssists: Marco Kasper, Albert Johansson · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–0
- P2 10:05DETMoritz SeiderUnassisted · Snap, 0.10 xG4–0
- P2 10:36WSHAliaksei ProtasAssists: Tom Wilson, Rasmus Sandin · Snap, 0.05 xG4–1
- P3 8:30WSHMartin FehérváryAssists: Declan Chisholm, Dylan Strome · Snap, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 17:10DETDylan LarkinENAssists: Simon Edvinsson · Snap, 0.31 xG5–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:04DETDylan Larkin: Holding2 min
- P1 16:15WSHJohn Carlson: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:42DETAxel Sandin-Pellikka: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:08WSHAliaksei Protas: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:41WSHAlex Ovechkin: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sourdif won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCopp – DeBrincat – Leonard7:57
xG 0.94–0.20 (83%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Soderblom – Kasper – Danielson9:11
xG 0.94–0.28 (77%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- van Riemsdyk – Compher – Rasmussen7:27
xG 0.36–0.15 (70%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Larkin – Raymond – Finnie12:46
xG 0.36–0.61 (37%)attempts 11–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeider – Edvinsson16:02
xG 2.13–0.27 (89%)attempts 29–10goals 3–1
- Bernard-Docker – Johansson10:51
xG 0.71–0.49 (59%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Chiarot – Sandin-Pellikka11:47
xG 0.34–0.30 (53%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Protas – Sourdif10:17
xG 0.53–0.22 (71%)attempts 18–6goals 1–0
- Strome – Beauvillier – Frank2:43
xG 0.18–0.05 (77%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – McMichael – Miroshnichenko2:32
xG 0.20–0.21 (49%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Strome – Protas2:42
xG 0.05–0.09 (36%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Fehérváry5:54
xG 0.18–0.04 (83%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Chychrun – Chisholm2:05
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Fehérváry – Chisholm5:16
xG 0.12–0.05 (70%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).