Sat, Dec 20, 2025·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Ottawa Senators 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 08 | 313 | 13 | 424 |
| OTT | 112 | 210 | 318 | 640 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:36OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Tyler Kleven, Tim Stützle · Deflected, 0.18 xG0–1
- P2 1:53CHIIlya MikheyevAssists: Wyatt Kaiser, Ryan Greene · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 8:02OTTTim StützleSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–2
- P2 9:55CHIAndre BurakovskyPPAssists: Ryan Greene, Artyom Levshunov · Slap, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 14:07OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P2 18:32CHIIlya MikheyevAssists: Ryan Donato, Oliver Moore · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–3
- P3 1:45OTTDavid PerronPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Fabian Zetterlund · Snap, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 5:31OTTDavid PerronGWGAssists: Tim Stützle, Olle Lycksell · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–5
- P3 7:17CHINick LardisAssists: Alex Vlasic · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–5
- P3 16:10OTTFabian ZetterlundAssists: Ridly Greig, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–6
Penalties (13)
- P1 6:36CHISam Lafferty: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P1 12:47OTTTim Stützle: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:47CHIMatt Grzelcyk: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 14:36OTTDavid Perron: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 19:27CHIRyan Greene: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:29OTTDavid Perron: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 8:53OTTNick Jensen: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 0:31CHIJason Dickinson: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 9:25CHIArtyom Levshunov: Holding2 min
- P3 16:32CHIRyan Donato: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:32OTTArtem Zub: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:32CHIRyan Donato: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:32CHIRyan Donato: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stützle won the faceoff against Dickinson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Teravainen – Donato – Dach3:12
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Donato – Greene4:21
xG 0.13–0.19 (41%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Lafferty – Dach – Lardis5:10
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Burakovsky – Bertuzzi – Greene7:30
xG 0.29–0.45 (39%)attempts 5–13goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- Vlasic – Levshunov2:03
xG 0.01–0.09 (11%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Crevier8:42
xG 0.53–0.62 (46%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Crevier – Kaiser4:05
xG 0.21–0.36 (36%)attempts 3–7goals 2–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestZetterlund – Tkachuk – Stützle9:07
xG 1.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 18–1goals 2–0
- Cousins – Batherson – Cozens3:21
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Giroux – Amadio – Greig8:06
xG 0.16–0.07 (71%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Perron – Batherson – Cozens5:15
xG 0.26–0.16 (61%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Spence6:04
xG 0.73–0.09 (89%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Sanderson – Zub9:55
xG 0.86–0.22 (79%)attempts 16–6goals 1–1
- Spence – Sanderson3:21
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).