Sat, Dec 20, 2025·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
New York Islanders 2, Buffalo Sabres 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 07 | 115 | 17 | 05 | 1 | 234 |
| BUF | 112 | 110 | 07 | 03 | 2 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:47BUFRasmus DahlinPPAssists: Alex Lyon · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 8:55BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Josh Doan, Peyton Krebs · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 19:37NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Anders Lee, Simon Holmstrom · Snap, 0.24 xG1–2
- P3 19:31NYIEmil HeinemanPPAssists: Mathew Barzal, Matthew Schaefer · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. BUF Tage Thompson stopped
- 2. NYI Mathew Barzal scored
- 3. BUF Jack Quinn scored
- 4. NYI Simon Holmstrom stopped
- 5. BUF Alex Tuch stopped
- 6. NYI Emil Heineman stopped
- 7. BUF Noah Ostlund stopped
- 8. NYI Jonathan Drouin stopped
- 9. BUF Josh Norris scored
- 10. NYI Calum Ritchie stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:27NYIMathew Barzal: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 2:43BUFBeck Malenstyn: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:01NYIAdam Pelech: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 4:24NYIJean-Gabriel Pageau: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:41NYIMarshall Warren: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 18:33BUFMichael Kesselring: Slashing2 min · PPG
- OT 4:43BUFAlex Tuch: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestCizikas – MacLean – Gatcomb9:36
xG 0.44–0.32 (58%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Pageau – Drouin – Heineman10:29
xG 0.56–0.45 (55%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- Duclair – Ritchie – Tsyplakov9:02
xG 0.34–0.29 (54%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Lee – Barzal – Holmstrom11:45
xG 0.55–0.51 (52%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Pelech3:39
xG 0.65–0.12 (84%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Mayfield – Schaefer2:36
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Warren6:29
xG 0.26–0.10 (72%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestTuch – Norris – Ostlund10:12
xG 0.57–0.19 (75%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Greenway – Malenstyn – Dunne7:35
xG 0.22–0.09 (71%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Thompson – Krebs – Doan11:42
xG 0.89–1.06 (46%)attempts 13–17goals 1–1
- McLeod – Quinn – Benson10:56
xG 0.27–0.74 (26%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Dahlin14:17
xG 0.64–0.38 (62%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Byram – Metsa11:38
xG 0.49–0.38 (56%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Byram – Power2:29
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).