Sat, Dec 20, 2025·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
New York Islanders 2, Buffalo Sabres 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 57% of the time.
49%
8%
35%
BUF winsNYI wins
Who was on the ice
Model-basedLine matchups and every shift of the game.
BUF forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against NYI's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.
| Lee–Barzal–Holmstrom | Pageau–Drouin–Heineman | Cizikas–MacLean–Gatcomb | Duclair–Ritchie–Tsyplakov | Lee–Barzal–Heineman | Pelech–DeAngelo | Pulock–Schaefer | Mayfield–Warren | Mayfield–Pelech | Mayfield–Schaefer | Mayfield–DeAngelo | Pulock–Warren | Pulock–DeAngelo | DeAngelo–Warren | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thompson–Krebs–Doan | 2:590.12–0.43 | 2:270.28–0.26 | 2:040.08–0.12 | 2:130.01–0.08 | 0:480.00–0.15 | 2:060.07–0.08 | 5:280.62–0.18 | 1:480.07–0.43 | 1:130.00–0.26 | |||||
| McLeod–Quinn–Benson | 2:060.03–0.11 | 1:260.06–0.06 | 3:590.13–0.28 | 2:230.05–0.25 | 3:290.09–0.16 | 1:250.06–0.00 | 2:320.07–0.25 | 1:300.06–0.23 | 1:050.00–0.06 | |||||
| Tuch–Norris–Ostlund | 3:040.36–0.01 | 4:110.11–0.18 | 0:480.00–0.00 | 1:350.10–0.00 | 3:550.20–0.04 | 3:030.34–0.00 | 1:270.03–0.00 | |||||||
| Greenway–Malenstyn–Dunne | 1:130.00–0.00 | 0:480.00–0.03 | 1:520.09–0.04 | 2:280.13–0.01 | 3:150.13–0.04 | 0:500.00–0.04 | 1:370.00–0.00 | 0:420.09–0.00 | ||||||
| Samuelsson–Dahlin | 1:430.08–0.00 | 4:410.34–0.23 | 2:400.08–0.05 | 2:520.07–0.01 | 0:340.00–0.07 | 5:030.15–0.17 | 4:190.35–0.00 | 1:360.00–0.00 | 0:330.00–0.00 | 1:060.00–0.07 | ||||
| Byram–Metsa | 1:230.00–0.00 | 2:330.06–0.06 | 4:030.10–0.29 | 1:470.13–0.00 | 3:390.19–0.06 | 3:190.17–0.07 | 1:450.01–0.00 | 0:370.00–0.00 | 0:580.12–0.00 | |||||
| Kesselring–Power | 4:410.11–0.53 | 1:090.00–0.23 | 0:540.08–0.00 | 2:140.05–0.28 | 0:340.00–0.15 | 2:350.14–0.11 | 2:220.06–0.11 | 1:240.03–0.25 | 0:490.00–0.43 | 1:090.00–0.23 | 0:350.00–0.00 | |||
| Byram–Power | 0:330.00–0.01 | 0:590.00–0.10 | 0:370.00–0.00 | 0:370.00–0.04 | ||||||||||
| Kesselring–Byram | 0:510.23–0.00 | 0:360.00–0.00 | 0:470.28–0.00 | |||||||||||
| Samuelsson–Kesselring | 0:360.00–0.01 | 1:190.00–0.01 | ||||||||||||
| Samuelsson–Byram | 1:110.00–0.00 | 0:340.00–0.00 | 0:380.00–0.00 | |||||||||||
| Power–Metsa | 0:450.05–0.00 | 0:370.00–0.03 |
Every shift, one row per player.
BUFNYIFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.
Shift totals
 Adam PelechNYI | 30 | 26:25 | 0:53 | 3:00 | 3 | 5 |
 Rasmus DahlinBUF | 29 | 25:52 | 0:54 | 2:02 | 8 | 2 |
 Mattias SamuelssonBUF | 27 | 24:12 | 0:54 | 2:03 | 2 | 6 |
 Matthew SchaeferNYI | 27 | 23:36 | 0:52 | 2:15 | 4 | 7 |
 Mathew BarzalNYI | 23 | 23:33 | 1:01 | 2:49 | 4 | 4 |
 Tony DeAngeloNYI | 26 | 22:55 | 0:53 | 1:35 | 4 | 1 |
 Bowen ByramBUF | 25 | 22:49 | 0:55 | 2:19 | 2 | 2 |
 Tage ThompsonBUF | 25 | 22:48 | 0:55 | 2:02 | 8 | 1 |
 Alex TuchBUF | 23 | 21:06 | 0:55 | 2:00 | 3 | 5 |
 Ryan PulockNYI | 26 | 20:18 | 0:47 | 2:02 | 3 | 8 |
 Anders LeeNYI | 21 | 20:04 | 0:57 | 2:49 | 5 | 3 |
 Josh NorrisBUF | 22 | 19:39 | 0:54 | 2:02 | 7 | 5 |
 Josh DoanBUF | 22 | 19:09 | 0:52 | 2:02 | 8 | 1 |
 Emil HeinemanNYI | 22 | 18:49 | 0:51 | 2:41 | 2 | 4 |
 Zach BensonBUF | 20 | 18:25 | 0:55 | 2:40 | 2 | 2 |
 Simon HolmstromNYI | 24 | 17:49 | 0:45 | 1:18 | 5 | 6 |
 Scott MayfieldNYI | 26 | 17:48 | 0:41 | 1:54 | 1 | 6 |
 Michael KesselringBUF | 24 | 17:28 | 0:44 | 1:14 | 4 | 7 |
 Jonathan DrouinNYI | 21 | 17:16 | 0:49 | 3:05 | 4 | 5 |
 Ryan McLeodBUF | 24 | 17:06 | 0:43 | 1:19 | 2 | 5 |
 Owen PowerBUF | 22 | 17:05 | 0:47 | 1:12 | 3 | 4 |
 Casey CizikasNYI | 23 | 16:18 | 0:43 | 2:02 | 0 | 4 |
 Jean-Gabriel PageauNYI | 25 | 15:34 | 0:37 | 1:12 | 4 | 6 |
 Jack QuinnBUF | 19 | 15:24 | 0:49 | 1:51 | 1 | 2 |
 Noah OstlundBUF | 19 | 14:42 | 0:46 | 1:02 | 3 | 5 |
 Zach MetsaBUF | 15 | 14:05 | 0:56 | 2:13 | 1 | 0 |
 Kyle MacLeanNYI | 18 | 13:55 | 0:46 | 1:30 | 0 | 3 |
 Peyton KrebsBUF | 17 | 13:29 | 0:48 | 1:11 | 5 | 1 |
 Calum RitchieNYI | 18 | 12:57 | 0:43 | 1:47 | 1 | 2 |
 Maxim TsyplakovNYI | 16 | 12:08 | 0:46 | 1:30 | 1 | 2 |
 Marc GatcombNYI | 16 | 11:14 | 0:42 | 1:12 | 0 | 2 |
 Anthony DuclairNYI | 16 | 10:48 | 0:41 | 1:14 | 2 | 1 |
 Josh DunneBUF | 13 | 10:20 | 0:48 | 1:39 | 0 | 1 |
 Marshall WarrenNYI | 18 | 9:51 | 0:33 | 1:19 | 3 | 1 |
 Jordan GreenwayBUF | 13 | 9:33 | 0:44 | 1:59 | 0 | 2 |
 Beck MalenstynBUF | 13 | 8:55 | 0:41 | 1:10 | 0 | 2 |