Sat, Dec 20, 2025·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Nashville Predators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 17 | 17 | 18 | 322 |
| NSH | 010 | 214 | 310 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:32TORNicolas RoyAssists: Bobby McMann, Nick Robertson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 4:56NSHErik HaulaPPAssists: Roman Josi, Steven Stamkos · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 11:57TORJohn TavaresAssists: Matias Maccelli, Jake McCabe · Deflected, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 19:26NSHAdam WilsbyAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 9:18NSHLuke EvangelistaAssists: Brady Skjei · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 18:25NSHSteven StamkosENGWGAssists: Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.81 xG2–4
- P3 19:06TORBobby McMannAssists: Nick Robertson, Easton Cowan · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–4
- P3 19:51NSHCole SmithENAssists: Brady Skjei, Michael McCarron · Snap, 0.66 xG3–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:14NSHCole Smith: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:56TORAuston Matthews: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:36TORJake McCabe: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:43NSHNicolas Hague: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 18:43TORSimon Benoit: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Laughton – Joshua6:52
xG 0.34–0.06 (86%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Maccelli11:56
xG 0.64–0.46 (58%)attempts 18–11goals 1–1
- Roy – Robertson – McMann7:42
xG 0.22–0.37 (37%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0
- Matthews – Knies – Cowan11:34
xG 0.55–0.87 (39%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Benoit10:39
xG 0.61–0.26 (70%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Myers – Benoit2:10
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Rielly4:45
xG 0.11–0.29 (27%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Bunting – Evangelista5:21
xG 0.51–0.06 (89%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- McCarron – Smith – Schaefer8:47
xG 0.37–0.09 (80%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Forsberg – Evangelista3:38
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Haula – Bunting3:50
xG 0.14–0.06 (70%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHague – Blankenburg13:39
xG 0.99–0.26 (79%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Josi – Perbix14:28
xG 0.42–0.35 (54%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
- Skjei – Wilsby14:07
xG 0.88–1.19 (42%)attempts 20–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).