Mon, Dec 22, 2025·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa
St. Louis Blues 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 05 | 111 | 08 | 124 |
| TBL | 26 | 17 | 14 | 417 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:21TBLPontus HolmbergAssists: Darren Raddysh, Zemgus Girgensons · Tip-in, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 9:12TBLDarren RaddyshPPGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Jake Guentzel · Slap, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 6:43STLJustin FaulkAssists: Tyler Tucker, Otto Stenberg · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 8:01TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Darren Raddysh · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 5:36TBLOliver BjorkstrandPPAssists: Jake Guentzel, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:15STLLogan Mailloux: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 9:43TBLZemgus Girgensons: Interference2 min
- P1 13:42STLRobert Thomas: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:57STLTyler Tucker: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:04STLLogan Mailloux: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 6:06TBLJack Finley: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Thomas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Thomas – Neighbours2:24
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Fabbri – Suter – Dvorsky3:24
xG 0.27–0.05 (85%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Fabbri – Joseph – Dvorsky4:27
xG 0.22–0.07 (76%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Toropchenko – Suter3:25
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestParayko – Broberg14:53
xG 0.95–0.67 (59%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Faulk – Fowler4:01
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Fowler – Mailloux11:03
xG 0.17–0.31 (36%)attempts 6–10goals 0–2
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGuentzel – Bjorkstrand – Paul9:42
xG 0.71–0.07 (91%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Girgensons – Cirelli – Holmberg10:16
xG 0.64–0.37 (63%)attempts 11–9goals 2–0
- Finley – Goncalves – James9:32
xG 0.22–0.31 (41%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Gourde – Point10:09
xG 0.16–0.80 (17%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestD'Astous – Moser2:17
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Raddysh – Moser14:06
xG 0.83–0.61 (58%)attempts 13–10goals 2–0
- Crozier – Carlile10:21
xG 0.48–0.48 (50%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).