Tue, Dec 23, 2025·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Buffalo Sabres 3, Ottawa Senators 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 112 | 18 | 04 | 11 | 325 |
| OTT | 111 | 18 | 07 | 00 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:22BUFBowen ByramAssists: Jordan Greenway, Josh Dunne · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 17:13OTTRidly GreigAssists: Claude Giroux · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 6:11BUFNoah OstlundAssists: Bowen Byram, Alex Tuch · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 9:27OTTTim StützlePPAssists: Drake Batherson, Dylan Cozens · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- OT 0:31BUFBowen ByramGWGAssists: Ryan McLeod, Mattias Samuelsson · Snap, 0.07 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 18:12BUFMichael Kesselring: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:12OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:36OTTNikolas Matinpalo: Interference2 min
- P2 9:13BUFMichael Kesselring: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 13:51BUFZach Benson: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:09BUFAlex Tuch: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Cozens
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGreenway – Malenstyn – Dunne10:30
xG 0.33–0.09 (79%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- McLeod – Quinn – Benson8:59
xG 0.29–0.70 (29%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Tuch – Norris – Ostlund11:17
xG 0.12–0.58 (18%)attempts 5–12goals 1–0
- Thompson – Krebs – Doan11:55
xG 0.06–0.74 (8%)attempts 5–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Power5:30
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Dahlin – Byram2:34
xG 0.03–0.05 (42%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Byram – Metsa6:47
xG 0.11–0.15 (42%)attempts 4–5goals 2–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Batherson – Cozens11:50
xG 0.94–0.12 (89%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Zetterlund – Tkachuk – Stützle13:05
xG 0.70–0.49 (59%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
- Giroux – Amadio – Greig12:29
xG 0.23–0.06 (79%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Cousins – Zetterlund – Halliday2:23
xG 0.04–0.10 (30%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanderson – Zub14:35
xG 0.77–0.15 (84%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Jensen – Matinpalo14:05
xG 0.91–0.47 (66%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Chabot – Spence17:35
xG 0.67–0.33 (67%)attempts 18–9goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).