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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 27, 2025·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise

Colorado Avalanche 6, Vegas Golden Knights 5 (SO)

Away

Colorado Avalanche

6

Final

Shootout

Home

Vegas Golden Knights

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 61% of the time.

VGK winsCOL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
COL09211316032639
VGK1731216001525

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:43VGKAlexander HoltzAssists: Noah Hanifin, Tomas Hertl · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
  2. P2 0:34VGKIvan BarbashevAssists: Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–2
  3. P2 5:19COLSamuel GirardAssists: Sam Malinski, Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
  4. P2 10:27COLMartin NecasAssists: Sam Malinski, Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
  5. P2 11:36VGKBen HuttonAssists: Alexander Holtz, Noah Hanifin · Slap, 0.06 xG2–3
  6. P2 12:05VGKBrett HowdenAssists: Reilly Smith, Jeremy Lauzon · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–4
  7. P3 3:52COLMartin NecasAssists: Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–4
  8. P3 8:21COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Sam Malinski, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.27 xG4–4
  9. P3 16:00VGKColton SissonsAssists: Keegan Kolesar, Kaedan Korczak · Backhand, 0.17 xG4–5
  10. P3 18:03COLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Brock Nelson · Snap, 0.18 xG5–5

Shootout

  1. 1. COL Ross Colton stopped
  2. 2. VGK Pavel Dorofeyev stopped
  3. 3. COL Martin Necas scored
  4. 4. VGK Mitch Marner scored
  5. 5. COL Valeri Nichushkin stopped
  6. 6. VGK Reilly Smith stopped
  7. 7. COL Nathan MacKinnon scored
  8. 8. VGK Alexander Holtz stopped
Penalties (4)
  1. P1 11:30COLCale Makar: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  2. P1 14:58VGKZach Whitecloud: Hooking2 min
  3. P3 5:52COLGavin Brindley: Too many men on the ice2 min
  4. P3 10:36COLJosh Manson: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

COL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VGK
47% to win53% to win
← COL attackVGK attack →
  1. P1 20:00Marner won the faceoff against MacKinnon
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

COLVGK
39Shots on goal25
4.0Expected goals3.3
100Shot attempts46
33Faceoffs won29
1Power plays3
6Penalty minutes2
16Hits21
8Blocked shots27
15Giveaways19
5Takeaways5

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Colorado Avalanche

Forward lines

  1. bestNelson – Lehkonen – Nichushkin10:43

    xG 0.66–0.14 (83%)attempts 17–5goals 0–1

  2. Olofsson – Colton – Drury2:06

    xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0

  3. Landeskog – MacKinnon – Necas15:23

    xG 1.14–1.07 (52%)attempts 26–14goals 3–1

  4. Kelly – Drury – Kiviranta4:49

    xG 0.11–0.42 (20%)attempts 6–8goals 0–2

Defence pairs

  1. bestGirard – Malinski14:22

    xG 1.03–0.04 (96%)attempts 29–6goals 2–0

  2. Toews – Makar15:39

    xG 0.98–0.87 (53%)attempts 29–11goals 1–2

  3. Burns – Manson13:45

    xG 0.63–1.16 (35%)attempts 11–17goals 0–2

Vegas Golden Knights

Forward lines

  1. bestSmith – Howden – Bowman9:06

    xG 0.89–0.24 (79%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1

  2. Saad – Sissons – Kolesar9:02

    xG 0.51–0.90 (36%)attempts 7–17goals 1–1

  3. Hertl – Dorofeyev – Holtz13:23

    xG 0.40–0.85 (32%)attempts 7–23goals 2–1

  4. Stone – Barbashev – Marner11:04

    xG 0.32–0.82 (28%)attempts 7–20goals 1–1

Defence pairs

  1. McNabb – Korczak18:14

    xG 1.26–1.31 (49%)attempts 16–27goals 2–3

  2. Hutton – Hanifin17:53

    xG 0.86–1.13 (43%)attempts 13–34goals 2–0

  3. Lauzon – Whitecloud13:08

    xG 0.13–0.55 (20%)attempts 7–21goals 1–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VGK 3.3 xGCOL 4.0 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VGKCOL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 99/100 · #10 of 1312 this seasonSwing 3.38 · 10 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 6% (winner's lowest chance)
COL 100%5050%50VGK 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +48 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 61% of the time.

VGK winsCOL wins

Simulated goal difference (VGK − COL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).