Mon, Dec 29, 2025·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Washington Capitals 3, Florida Panthers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 210 | 012 | 15 | 327 |
| FLA | 210 | 08 | 311 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:53WSHTom WilsonAssists: Martin Fehérváry, Dylan Strome · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 4:35FLAAnton LundellAssists: Jeff Petry · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 12:45FLASam ReinhartPPAssists: Seth Jones, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P1 19:17WSHTom WilsonPPAssists: Dylan Strome, Jakob Chychrun · Snap, 0.22 xG2–2
- P3 3:11WSHDylan StromeAssists: Tom Wilson, Aliaksei Protas · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 6:16FLABrad MarchandAssists: Sam Bennett, Seth Jones · Bat, 0.17 xG3–3
- P3 13:12FLAAaron EkbladGWGAssists: Sam Reinhart, Anton Lundell · Slap, 0.14 xG3–4
- P3 19:25FLASam ReinhartENAssists: Eetu Luostarinen, Aaron Ekblad · Backhand, 0.26 xG3–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 8:33WSHAnthony Beauvillier: Holding2 min
- P1 11:44WSHEthen Frank: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 16:54FLAA.J. Greer: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:04FLASeth Jones: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 4:20FLAGustav Forsling: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:48WSHRyan Leonard: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:50WSHNic Dowd: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:15WSHAlex Ovechkin: Interference2 min
- P3 6:55FLAGustav Forsling: Interference2 min
- P3 7:19WSHRyan Leonard: Holding2 min
- P3 17:12FLAEetu Luostarinen: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against Sourdif
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Strome – Protas3:17
xG 0.52–0.14 (78%)attempts 6–1goals 1–1
- Duhaime – Lapierre – Frank2:31
xG 0.11–0.02 (84%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Beauvillier – Sourdif2:16
xG 0.05–0.02 (71%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Dowd – Beauvillier – Leonard3:04
xG 0.10–0.10 (51%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChychrun – Sandin3:35
xG 0.14–0.03 (82%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Sandin7:13
xG 0.23–0.27 (46%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Roy – Sandin2:44
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestGreer – Rodrigues – Samoskevich8:48
xG 0.50–0.22 (70%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell8:58
xG 0.58–0.42 (58%)attempts 7–8goals 2–0
- Kunin – Boqvist – Studnicka4:27
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Marchand – Verhaeghe – Bennett8:09
xG 0.14–0.33 (29%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Balinskis10:45
xG 0.77–0.07 (91%)attempts 16–3goals 1–0
- Ekblad – Forsling11:41
xG 0.72–0.27 (73%)attempts 19–4goals 1–0
- Jones – Mikkola10:49
xG 0.20–0.56 (27%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).