Wed, Dec 31, 2025·Capital One Arena, Washington
New York Rangers 3, Washington Capitals 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 15 | 111 | 19 | 325 |
| WSH | 17 | 211 | 39 | 627 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:27WSHAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Ryan Leonard, Matt Roy · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 19:20NYRVincent TrocheckAssists: Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox · Snap, 0.27 xG1–1
- P2 7:33WSHTom WilsonAssists: Connor McMichael, Rasmus Sandin · Snap, 0.22 xG1–2
- P2 11:12WSHJustin SourdifPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–3
- P2 15:17NYRAdam FoxPPAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Artemi Panarin · Slap, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 13:34WSHAliaksei ProtasGWGAssists: Rasmus Sandin, Nic Dowd · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 16:37WSHTom WilsonAssists: Connor McMichael · Snap, 0.13 xG2–5
- P3 18:16NYRBraden SchneiderAssists: Gabe Perreault · Snap, 0.08 xG3–5
- P3 19:11WSHJustin SourdifENAssists: Tom Wilson, Aliaksei Protas · Snap, 0.80 xG3–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 16:27NYRVincent Trocheck: Holding2 min
- P2 9:13NYRSam Carrick: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 9:13NYRSam Carrick: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:13WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:00WSHBrandon Duhaime: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:33NYRAdam Fox: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Sourdif
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Lafrenière – Perreault12:12
xG 1.38–0.48 (74%)attempts 24–7goals 0–1
- Carrick – Brodzinski – Raddysh3:46
xG 0.38–0.20 (66%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Zibanejad – Panarin – Lafrenière2:59
xG 0.13–0.07 (65%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Sheary – Raddysh – Laba4:03
xG 0.43–0.38 (53%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSoucy – Robertson10:43
xG 1.45–0.49 (75%)attempts 16–7goals 0–1
- Gavrikov – Fox16:37
xG 0.30–0.46 (39%)attempts 18–9goals 0–1
- Borgen – Schneider14:21
xG 0.75–1.15 (39%)attempts 14–26goals 0–2
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilson – McMichael – Sourdif10:04
xG 0.93–0.63 (60%)attempts 19–9goals 2–0
- Duhaime – Lapierre – Frank5:35
xG 0.06–0.01 (88%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Strome – Beauvillier2:09
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Dowd – Beauvillier – Leonard7:05
xG 0.43–0.52 (45%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRoy – Chychrun12:32
xG 0.87–0.43 (67%)attempts 20–13goals 2–0
- McIlrath – Sandin2:10
xG 0.28–0.06 (82%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Roy – Sandin2:38
xG 0.01–0.06 (10%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).