Wed, Dec 31, 2025·Honda Center, Anaheim
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Anaheim Ducks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 17 | 19 | 110 | 13 | 429 |
| ANA | 06 | 17 | 214 | 01 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:30TBLJ.J. MoserAssists: Darren Raddysh, Brandon Hagel · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 15:17ANAJansen HarkinsAssists: Ross Johnston · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 19:11TBLBrayden PointAssists: Max Crozier, Nikita Kucherov · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 3:57ANABeckett SenneckeUnassisted · Snap, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 8:00TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Brandon Hagel, Charle-Edouard D'Astous · Slap, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 13:02ANAMason McTavishPPAssists: Pavel Mintyukov · Snap, 0.17 xG3–3
- OT 2:47TBLDarren RaddyshGWGAssists: Brandon Hagel, Andrei Vasilevskiy · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P2 7:01ANAOlen Zellweger: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:27TBLMax Crozier: Holding2 min
- P3 6:12ANAChris Kreider: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:33TBLBrandon Hagel: Holding2 min
- P3 11:47TBLYanni Gourde: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 15:02ANAPavel Mintyukov: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McTavish won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGuentzel – Cirelli – Hagel10:20
xG 0.94–0.57 (62%)attempts 20–10goals 1–0
- Gourde – Girgensons – Holmberg12:39
xG 0.26–0.29 (48%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Point – Goncalves10:01
xG 0.13–0.26 (33%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
- Bjorkstrand – Paul – James6:50
xG 0.00–0.26 (0%)attempts 2–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRaddysh – Moser18:04
xG 0.95–0.62 (60%)attempts 26–15goals 1–0
- Cernak – D'Astous13:26
xG 0.25–0.24 (52%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Crozier – Carlile11:24
xG 0.32–0.49 (40%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGranlund – Terry – Nesterenko6:31
xG 0.47–0.25 (65%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Killorn – Gauthier – Carlsson7:09
xG 0.34–0.16 (68%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Kreider – McTavish – Sennecke11:43
xG 0.39–0.30 (57%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Johnston – Harkins – Poehling2:51
xG 0.12–0.10 (55%)attempts 2–1goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHelleson – Zellweger11:26
xG 0.35–0.21 (63%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Trouba – Mintyukov2:00
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Moore – Mintyukov14:53
xG 0.37–0.63 (37%)attempts 13–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).