Wed, Dec 31, 2025·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Winnipeg Jets 1, Detroit Red Wings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 05 | 011 | 18 | 124 |
| DET | 210 | 06 | 03 | 219 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:22DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Moritz Seider, Lucas Raymond · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 14:48DETMason AppletonGWGAssists: J.T. Compher, Michael Rasmussen · Snap, 0.14 xG0–2
- P3 7:04WPGLogan StanleyAssists: Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:12WPGJosh Morrissey: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 1:04WPGVladislav Namestnikov: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:13DETPatrick Kane: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:20WPGCole Perfetti: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:40DETDylan Larkin: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:24DETDylan Larkin: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nyquist won the faceoff against Kasper
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Niederreiter – Namestnikov7:27
xG 0.32–0.06 (85%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Toews – Iafallo – Perfetti9:42
xG 0.37–0.18 (67%)attempts 16–4goals 1–0
- Lowry – Pearson – Barron8:00
xG 0.22–0.31 (42%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi13:33
xG 0.20–0.49 (29%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Samberg9:24
xG 0.59–0.10 (85%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey7:43
xG 0.51–0.23 (69%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Schenn – Stanley10:16
xG 0.38–0.17 (70%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Compher – Appleton – Rasmussen10:28
xG 0.35–0.32 (52%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Larkin – Raymond – Finnie12:12
xG 0.31–0.30 (51%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Kasper – Danielson7:23
xG 0.01–0.24 (2%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
- Kane – Copp – DeBrincat11:29
xG 0.43–0.70 (38%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Seider – Edvinsson20:17
xG 0.44–0.42 (51%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Johansson3:17
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Bernard-Docker – Johansson9:37
xG 0.29–0.35 (46%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).