Thu, Jan 1, 2026·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Winnipeg Jets 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 211 | 217 | 112 | 540 |
| TOR | 07 | 312 | 311 | 630 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:09WPGGabriel VilardiAssists: Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 17:38WPGDylan DeMeloAssists: Adam Lowry, Morgan Barron · Slap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 1:34TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Max Domi, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 2:11WPGAlex IafalloAssists: Jonathan Toews, Cole Perfetti · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 5:24WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Gabriel Vilardi, Neal Pionk · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–1
- P2 11:04TOROliver Ekman-LarssonAssists: Scott Laughton · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–2
- P2 19:57TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: Morgan Rielly, Matias Maccelli · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–3
- P3 6:30TORMatias MaccelliAssists: Matthew Knies, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–4
- P3 8:50WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Josh Morrissey, Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–4
- P3 13:13TORTroy StecherAssists: Bobby McMann, Auston Matthews · Snap, 0.06 xG5–5
- P3 15:38TORAuston MatthewsGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.14 xG5–6
Penalties (3)
- P1 3:47TOROliver Ekman-Larsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:53WPGNeal Pionk: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 7:13TORMax Domi: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Laughton won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestToews – Iafallo – Perfetti12:40
xG 0.47–0.12 (79%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi14:51
xG 0.88–0.90 (49%)attempts 15–14goals 2–3
- Nyquist – Namestnikov – Koepke9:22
xG 0.34–0.41 (45%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
- Lowry – Pearson – Barron10:36
xG 0.51–0.73 (41%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMorrissey – Pionk16:18
xG 1.03–0.86 (54%)attempts 19–17goals 2–3
- DeMelo – Samberg17:10
xG 0.60–0.44 (58%)attempts 13–14goals 1–1
- Miller – Stanley13:05
xG 0.58–0.54 (52%)attempts 17–15goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestDomi – Matthews – McMann13:51
xG 0.65–0.36 (65%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- Roy – Robertson – Cowan10:02
xG 0.64–0.38 (63%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Tavares – Maccelli – Knies10:10
xG 0.41–0.29 (58%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
- Jarnkrok – Laughton – Lorentz9:13
xG 0.17–0.74 (19%)attempts 4–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Stecher3:47
xG 0.69–0.17 (80%)attempts 11–3goals 2–0
- Ekman-Larsson – McCabe14:49
xG 0.61–0.33 (65%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Ekman-Larsson – Benoit2:05
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).