Sat, Jan 3, 2026·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Detroit Red Wings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 210 | 09 | 212 | 431 |
| DET | 05 | 14 | 03 | 112 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:44PITBryan RustAssists: Sidney Crosby, Parker Wotherspoon · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 17:30PITEgor ChinakhovGWGAssists: Ben Kindel, Parker Wotherspoon · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 15:06DETAlex DeBrincatUnassisted · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 19:00PITRickard RakellENAssists: Sidney Crosby, Brett Kulak · Wrist, 0.73 xG3–1
- P3 19:28PITConnor DewarENAssists: Blake Lizotte, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.44 xG4–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 7:45PITBrett Kulak: Holding2 min
- P1 8:47DETMoritz Seider: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:41PITTommy Novak: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:34DETSimon Edvinsson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Rakell13:07
xG 0.78–0.15 (84%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Mantha – Novak – Brazeau9:19
xG 0.49–0.33 (60%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Acciari – Dewar – Lizotte9:52
xG 0.23–0.19 (55%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Chinakhov – McGroarty – Kindel10:18
xG 0.19–0.29 (40%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Wotherspoon14:01
xG 0.56–0.16 (78%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- Letang – Kulak17:59
xG 0.84–0.55 (60%)attempts 19–17goals 0–1
- Shea – St. Ivany14:19
xG 0.42–0.31 (57%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Kasper – Danielson3:31
xG 0.26–0.01 (95%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Larkin – Raymond – Finnie6:21
xG 0.05–0.14 (27%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Kane – Copp – DeBrincat11:11
xG 0.45–0.54 (46%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- van Riemsdyk – Danielson – Finnie3:48
xG 0.05–0.28 (16%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBernard-Docker – Johansson9:51
xG 0.44–0.19 (69%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Sandin-Pellikka13:32
xG 0.34–0.32 (51%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Seider – Edvinsson17:32
xG 0.24–1.00 (19%)attempts 7–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).