Sat, Jan 3, 2026·UBS Arena, Elmont
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, New York Islanders 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 07 | 211 | 13 | 00 | 321 |
| NYI | 07 | 16 | 210 | 12 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:10NYIAdam PelechAssists: Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 9:30TORAuston MatthewsUnassisted · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1
- P2 17:19TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Bobby McMann, Max Domi · Snap, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 11:10NYIMatthew SchaeferAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–2
- P3 12:12TORNick RobertsonAssists: Nicolas Roy · Snap, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 17:15NYIEmil HeinemanAssists: Mathew Barzal, Tony DeAngelo · Snap, 0.06 xG3–3
- OT 4:11NYIMatthew SchaeferGWGAssists: Mathew Barzal, Emil Heineman · Snap, 0.22 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 7:18NYIMathew Barzal: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:50TORMax Domi: Cross checking2 min
- P1 10:50NYIRyan Pulock: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:52TORJohn Tavares: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barzal won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Robertson – Cowan8:12
xG 0.78–0.31 (71%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Tavares – Maccelli – Knies11:32
xG 0.21–0.18 (53%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Jarnkrok – Laughton – Lorentz9:31
xG 0.23–0.31 (43%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Domi – Matthews – McMann13:23
xG 0.47–0.78 (38%)attempts 9–15goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestBenning – Benoit8:02
xG 0.37–0.17 (68%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Rielly – Stecher13:24
xG 0.47–0.29 (62%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Ekman-Larsson – Stecher3:42
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPageau – Drouin – Holmstrom11:23
xG 0.46–0.05 (90%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Ritchie – Tsyplakov – Shabanov5:13
xG 0.34–0.22 (61%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Lee – Barzal – Heineman12:11
xG 0.62–0.55 (53%)attempts 15–10goals 1–2
- Cizikas – Gatcomb – Shabanov3:16
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPulock – Schaefer13:12
xG 0.41–0.29 (58%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Pelech – DeAngelo15:25
xG 0.35–0.31 (53%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Mayfield – Pelech2:08
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).