Sat, Jan 3, 2026·UBS Arena, Elmont
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, New York Islanders 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.
38%
9%
10%
43%
NYI winsTOR wins
Toronto Maple Leafs
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −4 | 1 | 27:31 | 0.07 | 54.0% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 26:40 | 0.00 | 51.9% | 0.0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 22:29 | 0.50 | 34.4% | +44.5 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 22:07 | 0.06 | 59.5% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:17 | 0.08 | 34.4% | +19.9 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 0 | 19:03 | 0.25 | 59.5% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 1 | 18:07 | 0.08 | 48.0% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:21 | 0.00 | 37.8% | +19.9 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 1 | 17:04 | 0.32 | 67.3% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 16:55 | 0.21 | 50.1% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:44 | 0.00 | 58.4% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14:20 | 0.39 | 51.5% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:26 | 0.00 | 60.5% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:05 | 0.02 | 42.9% | 0.0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 12:02 | 0.46 | 74.7% | +27.6 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 11:58 | 0.16 | 78.1% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 11:42 | 0.08 | 69.6% | +27.6 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:42 | 0.00 | 42.9% | 0.0 |
| O | 25 | 21 | 4 | .840 | 2.54 | −1.5 | 64:11 |
New York Islanders
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 24:04 | 0.14 | 49.7% | +20.5 | |
| 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 22:49 | 0.26 | 56.6% | +85.4 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 2 | 22:42 | 0.22 | 66.5% | +34.5 | |
| 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 22:11 | 0.46 | 67.0% | +77.4 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | −1 | 2 | 20:11 | 0.24 | 45.3% | +85.4 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19:45 | 0.06 | 56.8% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 1 | 19:09 | 0.18 | 25.7% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 1 | 18:56 | 0.06 | 61.3% | +47.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 | 18:45 | 0.27 | 93.4% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 18:30 | 0.15 | 77.5% | +26.5 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 15:34 | 0.21 | 51.6% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 2 | 15:04 | 0.07 | 33.2% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 0 | 14:50 | 0.00 | 25.3% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13:16 | 0.03 | 7.0% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:12 | 0.00 | 14.0% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10:15 | 0.04 | 14.6% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:10 | 0.00 | 31.7% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 2 | 9:10 | 0.14 | 27.9% | 0.0 |
| W | 21 | 18 | 3 | .857 | 2.68 | −0.3 | 64:11 |