Mon, Jan 5, 2026·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Detroit Red Wings 5, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 39 | 19 | 13 | 521 |
| OTT | 017 | 210 | 110 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:06DETAndrew CoppUnassisted · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 13:51DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P1 19:43DETJames van RiemsdykAssists: Jacob Bernard-Docker, Albert Johansson · Snap, 0.12 xG3–0
- P2 7:33OTTClaude GirouxAssists: Fabian Zetterlund, Jordan Spence · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–1
- P2 14:10OTTDylan CozensPPAssists: Jake Sanderson, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P2 15:42DETLucas RaymondGWGAssists: J.T. Compher, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 6:55OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Tim Stützle, Drake Batherson · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–3
- P3 12:53DETMichael RasmussenSHAssists: Simon Edvinsson · Snap, 0.14 xG5–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:38DETMarco Kasper: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:10OTTDavid Perron: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 17:10DETBen Chiarot: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 4:18OTTTyler Kleven: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:57DETMichael Rasmussen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:14OTTBrady Tkachuk: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:34OTTClaude Giroux: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:03DETAlbert Johansson: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:09DETJacob Bernard-Docker: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:16OTTBrady Tkachuk: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 14:46DETSimon Edvinsson: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stützle won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Appleton – Rasmussen – Finnie3:14
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Larkin – Leonard – Kasper2:11
xG 0.09–0.17 (35%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Appleton – Rasmussen – Leonard4:32
xG 0.08–0.27 (23%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Compher – Raymond7:50
xG 0.35–0.55 (39%)attempts 6–11goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- Bernard-Docker – Johansson9:02
xG 0.30–0.48 (39%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Seider – Edvinsson12:47
xG 0.33–0.65 (34%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
- Chiarot – Sandin-Pellikka10:51
xG 0.17–0.72 (19%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Zetterlund – Stützle5:27
xG 0.63–0.16 (80%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Perron – Cousins – Halliday4:29
xG 0.26–0.00 (99%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Batherson – Tkachuk – Cozens7:14
xG 0.32–0.12 (73%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Amadio – Pinto – Greig8:54
xG 0.38–0.40 (49%)attempts 9–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSpence – Kleven10:22
xG 0.89–0.30 (75%)attempts 14–7goals 2–1
- Jensen – Chabot11:14
xG 0.83–0.39 (68%)attempts 16–7goals 0–2
- Sanderson – Zub11:12
xG 0.23–0.27 (47%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).