Mon, Jan 5, 2026·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Detroit Red Wings 5, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 77% of the time.
70%
17%
OTT winsDET wins
Detroit Red Wings
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 24:44 | 0.01 | 39.7% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 23:20 | 0.00 | 33.9% | +15.5 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20:17 | 0.01 | 26.5% | 0.0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 19:59 | 0.18 | 37.0% | +15.1 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | −1 | 1 | 18:13 | 0.26 | 29.1% | +12.5 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 16:09 | 0.77 | 38.3% | +12.5 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15:48 | 0.09 | 36.2% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:45 | 0.00 | 45.6% | +9.4 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:07 | 0.00 | 38.4% | +16.5 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:59 | 0.00 | 39.2% | +9.4 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 14:31 | 0.29 | 36.7% | 0.0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 3 | 14:18 | 0.18 | 38.7% | +16.5 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 14:05 | 0.14 | 33.6% | +15.5 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 0 | 13:36 | 0.03 | 22.2% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 13:32 | 0.00 | 21.6% | 0.0 | |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 2 | 12:44 | 0.16 | 43.1% | +38.3 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 1 | 11:37 | 0.06 | 26.9% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11:03 | 0.16 | 30.8% | 0.0 |
| W | 37 | 34 | 3 | .919 | 4.07 | +1.1 | 60:00 |
Ottawa Senators
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 28:36 | 0.25 | 49.2% | +14.6 | |
| 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 24:42 | 0.44 | 74.4% | +30.6 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −3 | 5 | 20:38 | 0.17 | 63.8% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19:23 | 0.01 | 41.1% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19:20 | 0.15 | 71.7% | +15.9 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:01 | 0.37 | 76.2% | +15.9 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | −1 | 4 | 18:51 | 0.93 | 57.6% | +14.6 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 1 | 18:28 | 0.46 | 44.3% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 2 | 16:24 | 0.06 | 47.4% | 0.0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 15:36 | 0.46 | 79.8% | +8.8 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 13:46 | 0.09 | 74.7% | +8.8 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 13:25 | 0.04 | 74.9% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 1 | 12:55 | 0.06 | 40.6% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 2 | 12:45 | 0.05 | 68.1% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 3 | 12:22 | 0.18 | 78.6% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 10:54 | 0.14 | 91.5% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10:10 | 0.20 | 74.3% | +8.8 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:16 | 0.01 | 74.7% | 0.0 |
| – | 9 | 6 | 3 | .667 | 0.69 | −2.3 | 20:00 | |
| L | 12 | 10 | 2 | .833 | 0.98 | −1.0 | 35:47 |