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Ice Lab

Mon, Jan 5, 2026·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa

Detroit Red Wings 5, Ottawa Senators 3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 77% of the time.

OTT winsDET wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:14Shot by Zetterlund, saved by Gibson
  3. P1 0:38Kasper: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Batherson, Tkachuk, Cozens, Sanderson, Zub · DET Compher, Johansson, Raymond, Edvinsson, Kasper

  4. P1 0:50Shot by Sanderson, saved by Gibson5v4
  5. P1 1:24Shot by Cozens, saved by Gibson5v4
  6. P1 1:35Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Gibson5v4
  7. P1 1:55Shot by Perron, saved by Gibson5v4
  8. P1 2:29Shot by Chabot, saved by Gibson5v4
  9. P1 2:31Shot by Halliday, saved by Gibson5v4
  10. P1 2:38Shot by Chabot, saved by Gibson
  11. P1 4:57Shot by Chiarot, saved by Meriläinen
  12. P1 5:55Shot by Raymond, saved by Meriläinen
  13. P1 7:06Goal by Copp, unassisted+15 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Amadio, Pinto, Spence, Greig, Kleven · DET Kane, Chiarot, Copp, DeBrincat, Bernard-Docker

  14. P1 8:32Shot by Zub, saved by Gibson
  15. P1 8:36Shot by Kleven, saved by Gibson
  16. P1 9:54Shot by Jensen, saved by Gibson
  17. P1 10:36Shot by Giroux, saved by Gibson
  18. P1 10:57Shot by Greig, saved by Gibson
  19. P1 11:45Shot by Giroux, saved by Gibson
  20. P1 13:10Perron: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Perron, Cousins, Spence, Kleven, Halliday · DET Appleton, Rasmussen, Bernard-Docker, Johansson, Finnie

  21. P1 13:48Shot by DeBrincat, saved by Meriläinen4v5
  22. P1 13:51Goal by Larkin (van Riemsdyk, DeBrincat)4v5+12 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Pinto, Sanderson, Stützle, Zub · DET van Riemsdyk, Larkin, DeBrincat, Seider, Raymond

  23. P1 13:57Shot by Greig, saved by Gibson
  24. P1 15:24Shot by Cozens, saved by Gibson
  25. P1 16:33Shot by Edvinsson, saved by Meriläinen
  26. P1 16:43Shot by Kane, saved by Meriläinen
  27. P1 17:10Chiarot: Delaying game puck over glass (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Amadio, Pinto, Greig, Sanderson, Zub · DET Kane, Chiarot, Copp, DeBrincat, Johansson

  28. P1 18:48Shot by Perron, saved by Gibson5v4
  29. P1 19:43Goal by van Riemsdyk (Bernard-Docker, Johansson)+9 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Jensen, Amadio, Chabot, Pinto, Greig · DET van Riemsdyk, Compher, Bernard-Docker, Johansson, Raymond

  30. P1 19:50Shot by Kane, saved by Meriläinen
  31. P1 0:00Period end
  32. P2 0:00Period start
  33. P2 0:38Shot by Kasper, saved by Shepard
  34. P2 2:11Shot by Raymond, saved by Shepard
  35. P2 2:58Shot by Leonard, saved by Shepard
  36. P2 4:18Kleven: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Giroux, Zetterlund, Spence, Kleven, Stützle · DET van Riemsdyk, Chiarot, Compher, Raymond, Sandin-Pellikka

  37. P2 5:58Shot by Pinto, saved by Gibson4v5
  38. P2 6:39Shot by Appleton, saved by Shepard
  39. P2 7:24Shot by Spence, saved by Gibson
  40. P2 7:33Goal by Giroux (Zetterlund, Spence)+9 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Giroux, Zetterlund, Spence, Kleven, Stützle · DET Chiarot, Larkin, Kasper, Sandin-Pellikka, Finnie

  41. P2 8:20Shot by Seider, saved by Shepard
  42. P2 8:29Shot by Kane, saved by Shepard
  43. P2 8:58Shot by van Riemsdyk, saved by Shepard
  44. P2 11:43Shot by Amadio, saved by Gibson
  45. P2 12:32Shot by Chabot, saved by Gibson
  46. P2 13:15Shot by Chabot, saved by Gibson
  47. P2 13:57Rasmussen: Tripping (2 min)6v5

    On ice: OTT Perron, Cousins, Spence, Kleven, Stützle, Halliday · DET Chiarot, Appleton, Rasmussen, Leonard, Sandin-Pellikka

  48. P2 14:08Shot by Sanderson, saved by Gibson5v4
  49. P2 14:10Goal by Cozens (Sanderson, Stützle)5v4+15 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Batherson, Tkachuk, Cozens, Sanderson, Stützle · DET Larkin, Seider, Edvinsson, Kasper

  50. P2 15:42Goal by Raymond (Compher, van Riemsdyk)+16 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Jensen, Chabot, Batherson, Tkachuk, Cozens · DET van Riemsdyk, Compher, Seider, Raymond, Edvinsson

  51. P2 16:25Shot by Perron, saved by Gibson
  52. P2 17:14Tkachuk: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Chabot, Zetterlund, Tkachuk, Sanderson, Stützle · DET Chiarot, Appleton, Rasmussen, Kasper, Sandin-Pellikka

  53. P2 17:33Shot by Stützle, saved by Gibson4v5
  54. P2 18:45Shot by Copp, saved by Shepard4v5
  55. P2 0:00Period end
  56. P3 0:00Period start
  57. P3 1:35Shot by Chabot, saved by Gibson
  58. P3 2:04Shot by Cozens, saved by Gibson
  59. P3 2:34Giroux: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Giroux, Zetterlund, Spence, Kleven, Stützle · DET Larkin, Seider, Edvinsson, Kasper, Finnie

  60. P3 3:42Shot by Kane, saved by Shepard4v5
  61. P3 5:37Shot by DeBrincat, saved by Shepard
  62. P3 6:55Goal by Tkachuk (Stützle, Batherson)+16 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Batherson, Tkachuk, Spence, Kleven, Stützle · DET Larkin, Seider, Edvinsson, Kasper, Finnie

  63. P3 7:36Shot by Jensen, saved by Gibson
  64. P3 7:48Shot by Stützle, saved by Gibson
  65. P3 8:17Shot by Spence, saved by Gibson
  66. P3 8:47Shot by Kleven, saved by Gibson
  67. P3 9:03Johansson: Tripping (2 min)6v5

    On ice: OTT Amadio, Pinto, Greig, Kleven, Stützle, Zub · DET Larkin, Bernard-Docker, Johansson, Kasper, Finnie

  68. P3 9:04Shot by Batherson, saved by Gibson5v4
  69. P3 9:27Shot by Sanderson, saved by Gibson5v4
  70. P3 11:09Bernard-Docker: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Giroux, Perron, Chabot, Stützle, Halliday · DET Chiarot, Larkin, Rasmussen, Bernard-Docker, Johansson

  71. P3 12:53Goal by Rasmussen (Edvinsson)5v4+16 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Giroux, Perron, Chabot, Zetterlund, Halliday · DET Larkin, Rasmussen, Seider, Edvinsson

  72. P3 13:16Tkachuk: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Amadio, Pinto, Spence, Greig, Kleven · DET Chiarot, Compher, Bernard-Docker, Johansson, Raymond

  73. P3 14:46Edvinsson: Elbowing (2 min)4v5

    On ice: OTT Giroux, Chabot, Kleven, Stützle · DET Kane, Copp, Leonard, Edvinsson, Finnie

  74. P3 16:38Shot by Sanderson, saved by Gibson6v4
  75. P3 0:00Period end6v5
  76. P3 0:00Final6v5