Tue, Jan 6, 2026·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Vancouver Canucks 3, Buffalo Sabres 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 015 | 08 | 314 | 337 |
| BUF | 29 | 17 | 24 | 520 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:01BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Bowen Byram, Owen Power · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 11:24BUFRyan McLeodSHAssists: Alex Tuch, Mattias Samuelsson · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–2
- P2 9:37BUFAlex TuchAssists: Bowen Byram, Josh Norris · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–3
- P3 6:13BUFZach MetsaGWGAssists: Beck Malenstyn, Jordan Greenway · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–4
- P3 10:17VANJake DeBruskPPAssists: Kiefer Sherwood, Brock Boeser · Snap, 0.28 xG1–4
- P3 15:16VANElias PetterssonAssists: Brock Boeser, Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 15:55VANLiam OhgrenAssists: Marcus Pettersson, Linus Karlsson · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–4
- P3 18:36BUFJosh DoanENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 3:21BUFJosh Norris: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:49BUFBowen Byram: Interference2 min
- P2 5:09VANTom Willander: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:26BUFTage Thompson: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Kampf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestKane – Boeser – Pettersson4:31
xG 0.36–0.14 (71%)attempts 9–4goals 1–1
- Karlsson – Ohgren – Sasson2:31
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Hoglander – O'Connor – Räty2:19
xG 0.11–0.03 (79%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- DeBrusk – Kampf – Sherwood2:21
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hronek – Buium16:00
xG 0.47–0.48 (50%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Hronek3:36
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Myers – Joseph11:22
xG 0.44–0.49 (47%)attempts 13–10goals 0–2
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Krebs – Doan14:19
xG 0.75–0.36 (68%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Greenway – Malenstyn – Ostlund6:52
xG 0.30–0.22 (58%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
- Zucker – Tuch – Norris11:15
xG 0.35–0.32 (53%)attempts 7–15goals 1–0
- McLeod – Quinn – Benson6:41
xG 0.18–0.37 (33%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Byram11:13
xG 0.64–0.37 (63%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
- Byram – Power6:06
xG 0.18–0.10 (63%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Bryson – Metsa9:54
xG 0.20–0.18 (53%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).