Tue, Jan 6, 2026·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Florida Panthers 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 04 | 09 | 119 | 132 |
| TOR | 18 | 29 | 16 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:36TOREaston CowanAssists: Nick Robertson, Nicolas Roy · Snap, 0.27 xG0–1
- P2 0:42TORMatthew KniesGWGAssists: Troy Stecher, John Tavares · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 4:01TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Matthew Knies, Matias Maccelli · Snap, 0.18 xG0–3
- P3 11:38FLACarter VerhaegheUnassisted · Snap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 19:52TORBobby McMannENAssists: Nicolas Roy · Backhand, 0.79 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:24FLAEvan Rodrigues: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:14TOREaston Cowan: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:21TORMax Domi: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:21FLAAaron Ekblad: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:59TORMorgan Rielly: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:15TORPhilippe Myers: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 6:05FLADonovan Sebrango: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lundell won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestKunin – Gregor – Boqvist5:03
xG 0.38–0.19 (66%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Greer3:16
xG 0.10–0.01 (88%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Rodrigues – Boqvist – Samoskevich2:50
xG 0.03–0.07 (28%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Greer – Rodrigues – Samoskevich7:32
xG 0.30–0.41 (42%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMikkola – Balinskis9:32
xG 0.55–0.25 (69%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Petry – Mikkola4:51
xG 0.13–0.00 (99%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Sebrango – Balinskis3:23
xG 0.05–0.05 (50%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Laughton – Lorentz7:16
xG 0.48–0.15 (76%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Roy – Robertson – Cowan8:04
xG 0.41–0.19 (68%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Tavares – Maccelli – Knies9:46
xG 0.47–0.36 (57%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Domi – Matthews – McMann10:54
xG 0.28–0.34 (45%)attempts 6–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Carlo12:38
xG 0.67–0.31 (69%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
- Myers – Benoit10:14
xG 0.34–0.13 (72%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Stecher14:20
xG 0.43–0.41 (51%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).