Wed, Jan 7, 2026·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
San Jose Sharks 4, Los Angeles Kings 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 06 | 113 | 27 | 12 | 428 |
| LAK | 08 | 110 | 27 | 01 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:10SJSTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Macklin Celebrini · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 11:34LAKAlex TurcotteAssists: Kevin Fiala · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 5:38SJSAdam GaudettePPAssists: Timothy Liljegren, Jeff Skinner · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 6:40LAKKevin FialaAssists: Alex Turcotte, Joel Edmundson · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 17:50LAKAlex LaferriereAssists: Joel Edmundson, Cody Ceci · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 18:53SJSMacklin CelebriniUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–3
- OT 3:08SJSWilliam EklundGWGAssists: Macklin Celebrini · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 16:39SJSVincent Iorio: Interference2 min
- P2 1:13SJSSam Dickinson: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:30LAKDrew Doughty: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 5:07LAKSamuel Helenius: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:37SJSTyler Toffoli: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:49LAKDrew Doughty: Holding2 min
- P3 3:48LAKAdrian Kempe: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turcotte won the faceoff against Ostapchuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Wennberg – Regenda9:12
xG 0.47–0.06 (89%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Skinner – Gaudette – Graf8:35
xG 0.26–0.12 (68%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Eklund – Celebrini – Chernyshov12:08
xG 0.72–0.90 (45%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Reaves – Goodrow – Ostapchuk6:41
xG 0.06–0.91 (6%)attempts 1–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Liljegren12:59
xG 0.45–0.04 (91%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Leddy – Dickinson12:06
xG 0.55–0.70 (44%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
- Ferraro – Liljegren2:44
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestFiala – Turcotte – Kuzmenko11:24
xG 1.13–0.30 (79%)attempts 18–4goals 2–0
- Foegele – Byfield – Malott11:00
xG 0.62–0.51 (55%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Lee – Helenius – Ward2:20
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Kempe – Laferriere – Ward5:06
xG 0.30–0.39 (44%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Clarke13:59
xG 1.10–0.12 (90%)attempts 21–2goals 2–0
- Doughty – Anderson14:20
xG 0.56–0.44 (56%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Dumoulin – Ceci5:13
xG 0.21–0.47 (32%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).