Thu, Jan 8, 2026·Madison Square Garden, New York
Buffalo Sabres 5, New York Rangers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 14 | 214 | 23 | 521 |
| NYR | 07 | 111 | 114 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:07BUFJosh DoanAssists: Mattias Samuelsson, Jason Zucker · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 6:58BUFAlex TuchAssists: Bowen Byram, Josh Norris · Snap, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 9:34NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Artemi Panarin · Slap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 12:34BUFJason ZuckerPPGWGAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Tage Thompson · Deflected, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 0:51NYRVincent TrocheckAssists: J.T. Miller, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 14:38BUFMattias SamuelssonSHAssists: Ryan McLeod · Snap, 0.06 xG4–2
- P3 18:30BUFRyan McLeodENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.78 xG5–2
Penalties (4)
- P2 6:58NYRVincent Trocheck: Abuse of officials2 min
- P2 11:53NYRMatthew Robertson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 18:28BUFNoah Ostlund: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:24BUFPeyton Krebs: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMcLeod – Quinn – Benson11:49
xG 0.74–0.07 (92%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Zucker – Tuch – Norris9:53
xG 0.47–0.38 (55%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Thompson – Krebs – Doan9:08
xG 0.13–0.23 (36%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Greenway – Malenstyn – Ostlund7:46
xG 0.12–0.51 (20%)attempts 3–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBryson – Metsa8:33
xG 0.64–0.48 (57%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Byram – Metsa2:05
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Byram – Power15:07
xG 0.49–0.52 (49%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Miller – Lafrenière10:39
xG 0.20–0.13 (60%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Panarin – Cuylle10:44
xG 0.57–0.56 (51%)attempts 15–13goals 1–2
- Brodzinski – Raddysh – Perreault11:51
xG 0.24–0.48 (33%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Carrick – Blidh – Rempe6:19
xG 0.19–0.56 (25%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Schneider17:05
xG 0.88–0.29 (75%)attempts 23–8goals 0–1
- Soucy – Morrow12:58
xG 0.28–0.61 (31%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Borgen – Robertson15:09
xG 0.53–1.01 (34%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).