Thu, Jan 8, 2026·Ball Arena, Denver
Ottawa Senators 2, Colorado Avalanche 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 011 | 110 | 110 | 231 |
| COL | 211 | 617 | 06 | 834 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:11COLJosh MansonAssists: Ross Colton, Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 17:14COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Martin Necas, Sam Malinski · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 2:35COLCale MakarGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Josh Manson · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–3
- P2 5:08OTTShane PintoAssists: Claude Giroux, Jake Sanderson · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 11:46COLMartin NecasPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Slap, 0.06 xG1–4
- P2 12:03COLBrent BurnsAssists: Josh Manson, Ross Colton · Wrist, 0.00 xG1–5
- P2 14:23COLBrock NelsonPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Slap, 0.10 xG1–6
- P2 16:48COLJosh MansonAssists: Jack Drury, Zakhar Bardakov · Slap, 0.04 xG1–7
- P2 18:04COLBrock NelsonAssists: Ilya Solovyov, Ross Colton · Slap, 0.10 xG1–8
- P3 7:03OTTBrady TkachukSHAssists: Tyler Kleven · Snap, 0.23 xG2–8
Penalties (15)
- P1 2:04COLJosh Manson: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:04OTTTyler Kleven: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:32COLSamuel Girard: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:19COLJosh Manson: Interference2 min
- P2 11:02OTTMichael Amadio: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:43OTTBrady Tkachuk: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:52OTTShane Pinto: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:04COLSamuel Girard: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:04COLSamuel Girard: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:04OTTTim Stützle: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:55OTTShane Pinto: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:49OTTNick Cousins: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:49OTTNick Cousins: Misconduct10 min
- P3 13:59OTTRidly Greig: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:59OTTRidly Greig: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Drury won the faceoff against Pinto
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Batherson – Cozens9:45
xG 0.75–0.35 (68%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
- Amadio – Pinto – Greig2:07
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Eller – Cousins – Amadio2:03
xG 0.00–0.00 (44%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Giroux – Pinto – Greig5:55
xG 0.25–0.38 (40%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Spence14:04
xG 1.11–0.33 (77%)attempts 29–9goals 0–2
- Sanderson – Zub9:43
xG 0.34–0.34 (50%)attempts 12–7goals 0–2
- Kleven – Matinpalo12:52
xG 0.23–0.44 (34%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestOlofsson – Kelly – Drury8:24
xG 0.40–0.05 (89%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Bardakov – Ivan – Brindley6:19
xG 0.15–0.01 (93%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas9:58
xG 0.54–0.57 (49%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
- Nelson – Nichushkin – Colton6:59
xG 0.36–0.49 (42%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirard – Solovyov6:46
xG 0.51–0.07 (88%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Burns – Girard5:40
xG 0.35–0.03 (93%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Makar – Malinski9:19
xG 0.54–0.47 (54%)attempts 13–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).