Tue, Jan 13, 2026·Capital One Arena, Washington
Montréal Canadiens 2, Washington Capitals 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 18 | 111 | 05 | 01 | 225 |
| WSH | 012 | 05 | 215 | 110 | 342 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:14MTLJosh AndersonSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 7:40MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Phillip Danault, Zachary Bolduc · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P3 5:06WSHEthen FrankAssists: Matt Roy, Rasmus Sandin · Deflected, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 18:06WSHEthen FrankAssists: Rasmus Sandin, Anthony Beauvillier · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–2
- OT 4:21WSHConnor McMichaelGWGAssists: Dylan Strome, Rasmus Sandin · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 0:59WSHMartin Fehérváry: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:55MTLJoseph Veleno: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:03MTLArber Xhekaj: Instigator2 min
- P2 8:03MTLArber Xhekaj: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:03MTLArber Xhekaj: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 8:03WSHDylan McIlrath: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:14MTLCole Caufield: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:31WSHDylan Strome: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:27WSHNic Dowd: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:24MTLSammy Blais: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:42WSHNic Dowd: Holding2 min
- P3 13:42WSHNic Dowd: Misconduct10 min
- OT 1:54MTLNick Suzuki: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestKapanen – Slafkovský – Demidov11:26
xG 0.57–0.30 (66%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Danault – Anderson – Bolduc6:59
xG 0.07–0.24 (21%)attempts 2–10goals 0–1
- Suzuki – Texier – Caufield11:18
xG 0.40–0.76 (35%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Blais – Veleno4:18
xG 0.00–0.43 (0%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarrier – Hutson8:59
xG 0.32–0.26 (55%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
- Matheson – Dobson10:31
xG 0.36–0.42 (46%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Struble – Xhekaj6:05
xG 0.32–0.40 (44%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Strome – Frank6:08
xG 0.50–0.08 (87%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Strome – Beauvillier6:17
xG 0.48–0.16 (75%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Dowd – Duhaime – Leason4:32
xG 0.43–0.32 (58%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Beauvillier – McMichael – Protas4:49
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcIlrath – van Riemsdyk5:57
xG 0.88–0.32 (74%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Roy – Fehérváry3:18
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Fehérváry2:45
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).