Thu, Jan 15, 2026·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Montréal Canadiens 3, Buffalo Sabres 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 27 | 18 | 08 | 323 |
| BUF | 212 | 110 | 25 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:11MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Noah Dobson · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 4:05BUFTage ThompsonPPAssists: Noah Ostlund, Jason Zucker · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 10:30BUFJosh DoanPPAssists: Tage Thompson, Noah Ostlund · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P1 14:20MTLIvan DemidovPPAssists: Lane Hutson, Nick Suzuki · Slap, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 3:05MTLNick SuzukiPPAssists: Lane Hutson, Cole Caufield · Snap, 0.10 xG3–2
- P2 8:55BUFAlex TuchAssists: Tage Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin · Snap, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 5:12BUFTage ThompsonGWGAssists: Josh Doan · Snap, 0.13 xG3–4
- P3 18:20BUFTage ThompsonENAssists: Zach Benson · Wrist, 0.77 xG3–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:46MTLLane Hutson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 9:21MTLKaiden Guhle: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 12:50BUFZach Benson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 13:46BUFBowen Byram: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:32BUFJacob Bryson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 10:20BUFBowen Byram: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:20MTLMike Matheson: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:37MTLPhillip Danault: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:08BUFJordan Greenway: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:08MTLBrendan Gallagher: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:39MTLOliver Kapanen: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Texier – Caufield10:47
xG 0.81–0.51 (62%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- Kapanen – Slafkovský – Demidov8:14
xG 0.23–0.02 (93%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Blais – Veleno6:05
xG 0.64–0.44 (59%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Danault – Anderson – Bolduc7:42
xG 0.09–0.29 (24%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDobson – Hutson3:33
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Guhle – Hutson2:03
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Guhle – Xhekaj6:44
xG 0.36–0.17 (68%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGreenway – Malenstyn – Kozak6:49
xG 0.36–0.03 (93%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Krebs – Doan – Ostlund7:48
xG 0.24–0.18 (57%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Zucker – McLeod – Quinn7:39
xG 0.05–0.09 (36%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Tuch – Thompson – Benson10:46
xG 0.36–0.79 (32%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBryson – Metsa4:34
xG 0.13–0.04 (77%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Byram8:24
xG 0.33–0.49 (40%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Dahlin – Power6:49
xG 0.33–0.51 (39%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).