Thu, Jan 15, 2026·Capital One Arena, Washington
San Jose Sharks 3, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 011 | 312 | 03 | 326 |
| WSH | 05 | 14 | 114 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:58WSHDylan StromePPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Jakob Chychrun · Backhand, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 13:27SJSZack OstapchukAssists: Dmitry Orlov, William Eklund · Snap, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 14:53SJSCollin GrafAssists: Pavol Regenda · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 16:13SJSPavol RegendaGWGAssists: Macklin Celebrini, Collin Graf · Snap, 0.23 xG3–1
- P3 9:11WSHRyan LeonardAssists: John Carlson, Martin Fehérváry · Snap, 0.11 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 16:14WSHJohn Carlson: Interference2 min
- P2 0:56WSHJohn Carlson: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:46SJSVincent Iorio: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 19:49SJSTyler Toffoli: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:56WSHJakob Chychrun: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Celebrini won the faceoff against McMichael
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestGaudette – Chernyshov – Misa4:22
xG 0.51–0.16 (77%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Regenda – Celebrini – Graf4:23
xG 0.32–0.01 (97%)attempts 5–4goals 2–0
- Toffoli – Wennberg – Eklund8:37
xG 0.36–0.11 (76%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Celebrini – Graf – Chernyshov6:38
xG 0.52–0.39 (57%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Klingberg14:46
xG 1.13–0.47 (71%)attempts 17–12goals 2–0
- Ferraro – Liljegren13:02
xG 0.74–0.26 (74%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Iorio – Dickinson15:22
xG 0.42–0.93 (31%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Strome – Protas3:47
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Milano – Duhaime – Lapierre4:49
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Beauvillier – McMichael – Protas5:55
xG 0.31–0.41 (43%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Dowd – Leason – Leonard5:03
xG 0.16–0.29 (36%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Sandin2:56
xG 0.31–0.09 (77%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Carlson – Chychrun9:04
xG 0.29–0.17 (63%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- McIlrath – Sandin4:40
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).