Fri, Jan 16, 2026·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, St. Louis Blues 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 011 | 215 | 08 | 02 | 0 | 236 |
| STL | 27 | 05 | 05 | 04 | 1 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:03STLJake NeighboursAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 17:33STLNick BjugstadAssists: Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 9:59TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Brandon Hagel, Darren Raddysh · Slap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 11:01TBLOliver BjorkstrandPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Darren Raddysh · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. TBL Gage Goncalves stopped
- 2. STL Jake Neighbours stopped
- 3. TBL Jake Guentzel stopped
- 4. STL Jordan Kyrou scored
- 5. TBL Nikita Kucherov stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 18:40TBLGage Goncalves: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:03STLAlexey Toropchenko: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:51STLNathan Walker: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 13:05TBLJake Guentzel: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:30STLBrayden Schenn: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Walker won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Guentzel – Paul5:50
xG 0.95–0.30 (76%)attempts 15–4goals 0–2
- Kucherov – Cirelli – Hagel8:42
xG 0.41–0.04 (92%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Gourde – Girgensons – Holmberg11:46
xG 0.32–0.07 (81%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Cirelli – Hagel – Goncalves3:58
xG 0.17–0.06 (74%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCrozier – Carlile11:54
xG 0.81–0.21 (79%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Cernak – D'Astous15:51
xG 0.37–0.14 (73%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1
- Raddysh – D'Astous3:26
xG 0.24–0.06 (80%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Sundqvist – Walker – Toropchenko8:48
xG 0.23–0.35 (40%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Buchnevich – Berggren7:51
xG 0.19–0.33 (36%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Schenn – Snuggerud – Stenberg10:44
xG 0.06–0.27 (19%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Kyrou – Neighbours – Dvorsky8:57
xG 0.19–0.46 (29%)attempts 3–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Tucker – Mailloux3:48
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Faulk – Tucker10:52
xG 0.14–0.32 (31%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Faulk – Fowler3:29
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).