Sat, Jan 17, 2026·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Montréal Canadiens 6, Ottawa Senators 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 26 | 14 | 26 | 13 | 619 |
| OTT | 08 | 414 | 112 | 00 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:06MTLJuraj SlafkovskýPPAssists: Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 17:50MTLCole CaufieldPPAssists: Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 0:42OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Jake Sanderson · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 3:07OTTTim StützleAssists: Nick Cousins, Lars Eller · Between legs, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 4:26MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Mike Matheson, Noah Dobson · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–2
- P2 15:31OTTDylan CozensPPAssists: Tim Stützle, Jake Sanderson · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- P2 18:24OTTDavid PerronAssists: Artem Zub, Jake Sanderson · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–4
- P3 7:55OTTJake SandersonAssists: Ridly Greig · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–5
- P3 15:36MTLJuraj SlafkovskýAssists: Lane Hutson, Phillip Danault · Tip-in, 0.06 xG4–5
- P3 16:41MTLAlexandre CarrierAssists: Ivan Demidov, Josh Anderson · Slap, 0.04 xG5–5
- OT 0:33MTLCole CaufieldGWGAssists: Lane Hutson · Slap, 0.11 xG6–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:32OTTDrake Batherson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 16:32OTTDavid Perron: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 19:25MTLKaiden Guhle: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 0:00MTLJosh Anderson: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:12OTTNick Cousins: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:39OTTNick Cousins: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min
- P2 13:34MTLIvan Demidov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:03OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:03MTLPhillip Danault: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:48OTTThomas Chabot: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Pinto
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Texier – Caufield6:48
xG 0.29–0.08 (78%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Evans – Veleno – Bolduc10:29
xG 0.41–0.26 (61%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Danault – Anderson7:18
xG 0.10–0.15 (41%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský4:32
xG 0.08–0.43 (16%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGuhle – Xhekaj3:23
xG 0.06–0.01 (89%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Carrier – Hutson7:06
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Matheson – Dobson15:28
xG 0.86–0.86 (50%)attempts 16–24goals 1–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTkachuk – Cozens – Greig4:06
xG 0.51–0.10 (84%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Perron – Eller – Cousins8:38
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Giroux – Pinto – Greig6:26
xG 0.30–0.17 (64%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Zetterlund – Batherson – Cozens4:14
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpence – Kleven12:58
xG 0.61–0.01 (99%)attempts 16–3goals 0–0
- Sanderson – Zub13:14
xG 0.62–0.14 (82%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Jensen – Chabot14:24
xG 0.52–0.60 (46%)attempts 20–13goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).