Sat, Jan 17, 2026·Capital One Arena, Washington
Florida Panthers 5, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 114 | 27 | 210 | 531 |
| WSH | 04 | 214 | 06 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:23FLAA.J. GreerAssists: Sam Bennett, Aaron Ekblad · Snap, 0.23 xG1–0
- P2 2:04WSHJakob ChychrunAssists: Aliaksei Protas, John Carlson · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 10:04WSHJakob ChychrunAssists: John Carlson, Nic Dowd · Snap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 11:40FLASam BennettAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Niko Mikkola · Snap, 0.28 xG2–2
- P2 15:16FLAUvis BalinskisPPGWGAssists: Anton Lundell, Sam Reinhart · Slap, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 18:40FLAAnton LundellENAssists: Sam Reinhart · Snap, 0.43 xG4–2
- P3 19:26FLACarter VerhaegheENAssists: Sam Bennett, A.J. Greer · Snap, 0.74 xG5–2
Penalties (5)
- P2 1:14FLASam Bennett: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:14WSHNic Dowd: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:31WSHAlex Ovechkin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 0:22FLAEetu Luostarinen: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:30WSHEthen Frank: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lundell won the faceoff against McMichael
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Bennett – Greer13:26
xG 1.15–0.79 (59%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- Reinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell14:08
xG 0.68–0.54 (56%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Kunin – Boqvist – Schwindt6:16
xG 0.09–0.22 (28%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- Rodrigues – Samoskevich – Vilmanis10:01
xG 0.26–0.52 (33%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling22:30
xG 1.49–0.92 (62%)attempts 22–21goals 1–0
- Petry – Bjornfot11:08
xG 0.48–0.34 (59%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Mikkola – Balinskis13:31
xG 0.61–0.79 (44%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDuhaime – Leason – Lapierre3:45
xG 0.08–0.01 (91%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- McMichael – Protas – Leonard11:36
xG 0.56–0.72 (44%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Dowd – Miroshnichenko – Frank7:21
xG 0.25–0.43 (37%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Strome – Beauvillier7:38
xG 0.58–0.80 (42%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Chychrun17:15
xG 1.16–0.92 (56%)attempts 18–15goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Fehérváry2:25
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Roy – Sandin3:31
xG 0.05–0.23 (19%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).