Mon, Jan 19, 2026·Ball Arena, Denver
Washington Capitals 2, Colorado Avalanche 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 112 | 19 | 03 | 224 |
| COL | 111 | 216 | 217 | 544 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:54COLParker KellyAssists: Cale Makar, Alex Barré-Boulet · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 7:27WSHJakob ChychrunPPAssists: Dylan Strome, Ethen Frank · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 7:03COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Martin Necas, Victor Olofsson · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 15:58COLVictor OlofssonGWGAssists: Josh Manson, Brock Nelson · Snap, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 16:15WSHEthen FrankAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Nic Dowd · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 12:32COLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon · Snap, 0.18 xG2–4
- P3 16:30COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Martin Necas · Snap, 0.29 xG2–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:49COLIlya Solovyov: Holding2 min
- P1 6:56COLScott Wedgewood: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:42COLJosh Manson: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:23WSHJakob Chychrun: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 8:50WSHIvan Miroshnichenko: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:50COLSamuel Girard: Holding2 min
- P2 11:58WSHAliaksei Protas: Interference2 min
- P3 4:26WSHJakob Chychrun: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 5:01WSHAnthony Beauvillier: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:28COLBrock Nelson: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:42WSHCharlie Lindgren: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Dowd – Frank6:35
xG 0.62–0.10 (86%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Duhaime – Lapierre – Miroshnichenko4:58
xG 0.43–0.26 (62%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Strome – Protas2:34
xG 0.01–0.18 (5%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Strome – Beauvillier – Protas7:22
xG 0.20–0.68 (23%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Carlson – Chychrun13:56
xG 0.99–1.00 (50%)attempts 16–24goals 0–1
- Roy – Fehérváry12:55
xG 0.46–0.90 (34%)attempts 8–23goals 1–1
- Sandin – Chisholm8:37
xG 0.20–0.86 (19%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestNelson – Olofsson – Colton9:26
xG 1.30–0.38 (77%)attempts 20–7goals 1–1
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas10:42
xG 1.22–0.33 (79%)attempts 19–6goals 2–0
- Barré-Boulet – Bardakov – Ivan2:56
xG 0.05–0.12 (28%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Kelly – Drury – Brindley9:06
xG 0.26–0.77 (25%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirard – Malinski4:36
xG 0.99–0.16 (86%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Burns – Manson10:04
xG 0.82–0.47 (64%)attempts 16–7goals 2–1
- Girard – Makar2:55
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).