Tue, Jan 20, 2026·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa
San Jose Sharks 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 19 | 05 | 09 | 123 |
| TBL | 16 | 27 | 17 | 420 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:37SJSTyler ToffoliAssists: William Eklund, Alexander Wennberg · Deflected, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 15:10TBLBrandon HagelAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Nikita Kucherov · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 1:49TBLAnthony CirelliGWGAssists: Brandon Hagel, Nikita Kucherov · Poke, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 3:17TBLJake GuentzelAssists: Dominic James, Gage Goncalves · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 17:41TBLBrandon HagelENAssists: Jake Guentzel, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.81 xG1–4
Penalties (2)
- P2 6:51SJSRyan Reaves: Holding2 min
- P2 12:57TBLGage Goncalves: Interference bench2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Misa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Celebrini – Misa3:41
xG 0.13–0.04 (75%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Wennberg – Eklund12:52
xG 0.38–0.45 (46%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Reaves – Goodrow – Ostapchuk9:15
xG 0.09–0.34 (21%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Smith – Celebrini – Graf7:35
xG 0.02–0.35 (5%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ferraro – Liljegren18:49
xG 0.29–0.75 (28%)attempts 12–21goals 0–0
- Orlov – Klingberg18:07
xG 0.26–0.72 (26%)attempts 15–18goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Dickinson10:41
xG 0.18–1.04 (15%)attempts 5–16goals 1–3
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGuentzel – Goncalves – James12:04
xG 0.84–0.09 (90%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Gourde – Girgensons – Holmberg11:38
xG 0.73–0.13 (85%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Cirelli – Hagel8:56
xG 0.41–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–3goals 2–0
- Kucherov – Paul – Hagel4:37
xG 0.49–0.24 (67%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCrozier – Carlile13:49
xG 1.14–0.13 (90%)attempts 18–8goals 2–0
- Raddysh – Moser17:19
xG 0.68–0.33 (68%)attempts 24–16goals 0–0
- Cernak – D'Astous13:23
xG 0.61–0.35 (64%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).