Fri, Jan 23, 2026·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Washington Capitals 3, Calgary Flames 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 08 | 117 | 213 | 338 |
| CGY | 116 | 04 | 06 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:09CGYMorgan FrostPPAssists: Connor Zary · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 6:33WSHHendrix LapierreAssists: John Carlson, Martin Fehérváry · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 7:35WSHAliaksei ProtasGWGAssists: Tom Wilson, Justin Sourdif · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–1
- P3 19:07WSHAlex OvechkinENAssists: Dylan Strome, Martin Fehérváry · Wrist, 0.46 xG3–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:40WSHJohn Carlson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:27WSHRyan Leonard: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:27CGYYan Kuznetsov: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:11CGYJoel Farabee: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:39CGYAdam Klapka: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:35CGYAdam Klapka: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:00CGYYan Kuznetsov: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:37WSHTom Wilson: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:51WSHHendrix Lapierre: Closing hand on puck2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Sourdif
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestBeauvillier – Duhaime – Lapierre3:54
xG 0.66–0.05 (93%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Wilson – Protas – Sourdif9:02
xG 0.62–0.21 (74%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Strome – McMichael – Leonard7:24
xG 0.23–0.39 (37%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Dowd – Frank6:12
xG 0.10–0.37 (22%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRoy – Chychrun12:29
xG 1.26–0.49 (72%)attempts 20–11goals 1–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry12:10
xG 0.62–0.49 (56%)attempts 18–16goals 1–0
- Roy – Fehérváry2:21
xG 0.04–0.06 (40%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestPospisil – Zary – Gridin6:16
xG 0.12–0.04 (78%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Backlund – Farabee – Sharangovich11:48
xG 0.43–0.54 (44%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Lomberg – Frost – Klapka3:57
xG 0.13–0.29 (31%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Kadri – Huberdeau – Coronato9:40
xG 0.29–0.63 (31%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWhitecloud – Bahl17:48
xG 1.07–1.02 (51%)attempts 25–20goals 0–0
- Pachal – Kuznetsov3:19
xG 0.15–0.11 (58%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Hanley – Pachal8:05
xG 0.21–0.60 (26%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).