Fri, Jan 23, 2026·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
New York Rangers 1, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 111 | 011 | 07 | 129 |
| SJS | 317 | 07 | 08 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:09SJSMacklin CelebriniPPAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Will Smith · Wrist, 0.31 xG0–1
- P1 3:08SJSPavol RegendaPPGWGAssists: Michael Misa, Collin Graf · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–2
- P1 7:37SJSMacklin CelebriniAssists: Will Smith, Collin Graf · Slap, 0.18 xG0–3
- P1 12:50NYRSam CarrickAssists: Taylor Raddysh, Anton Blidh · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:29NYRMika Zibanejad: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 1:23NYRMatthew Robertson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 4:26SJSCollin Graf: Interference2 min
- P1 14:36NYRTaylor Raddysh: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:24SJSMario Ferraro: Holding2 min
- P2 7:38NYRCarson Soucy: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:08NYRWill Borgen: Holding2 min
- P3 8:33NYRGabe Perreault: Elbowing2 min
- P3 13:55NYRWill Borgen: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestCarrick – Blidh – Raddysh4:55
xG 0.50–0.03 (94%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Zibanejad – Miller – Perreault9:19
xG 0.34–0.20 (63%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière8:00
xG 0.33–0.28 (54%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Cuylle – Othmann – Laba6:16
xG 0.22–0.37 (37%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Schneider13:58
xG 0.55–0.27 (67%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Soucy – Morrow7:41
xG 0.39–0.20 (66%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Robertson – Morrow4:14
xG 0.30–0.13 (70%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestGaudette – Eklund – Misa7:20
xG 0.35–0.22 (62%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Wennberg – Regenda7:55
xG 0.27–0.17 (61%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Smith – Celebrini – Graf10:24
xG 0.49–0.58 (46%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Goodrow – Gaudette – Ostapchuk2:24
xG 0.03–0.12 (20%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerraro – Liljegren12:19
xG 0.81–0.37 (69%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Desharnais – Dickinson8:13
xG 0.20–0.24 (46%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Orlov – Klingberg11:33
xG 0.23–1.03 (19%)attempts 5–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).