Sat, Jan 24, 2026·UBS Arena, Elmont
Buffalo Sabres 5, New York Islanders 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 06 | 27 | 38 | 521 |
| NYI | 013 | 07 | 06 | 026 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:33BUFJason ZuckerGWGAssists: Jack Quinn, Ryan McLeod · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 19:47BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Zach Benson, Mattias Samuelsson · Snap, 0.17 xG2–0
- P3 0:25BUFJason ZuckerAssists: Ryan McLeod · Snap, 0.28 xG3–0
- P3 14:02BUFRasmus DahlinENAssists: Peyton Krebs · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–0
- P3 14:38BUFAlex TuchAssists: Mattias Samuelsson, Michael Kesselring · Deflected, 0.11 xG5–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:17BUFAlex Lyon: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:18NYIAnders Lee: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:46NYIMatthew Schaefer: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:57BUFMattias Samuelsson: Holding2 min
- P3 15:24BUFMichael Kesselring: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:53BUFZach Benson: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:53NYIScott Mayfield: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestZucker – McLeod – Quinn9:21
xG 0.95–0.54 (64%)attempts 9–11goals 2–0
- Malenstyn – Krebs – Kozak4:45
xG 0.26–0.12 (67%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Ostlund – Benson – Helenius7:34
xG 0.39–0.39 (50%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Tuch – Krebs – Doan4:06
xG 0.15–0.15 (49%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestByram – Power10:10
xG 0.56–0.19 (74%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Kesselring3:05
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Dahlin – Metsa2:41
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Duclair – Barzal8:16
xG 0.86–0.68 (56%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
- Pageau – Holmstrom – Shabanov10:50
xG 0.24–0.41 (38%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Cizikas – MacLean – Ritchie9:55
xG 0.26–0.49 (35%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Drouin – Horvat – Heineman10:44
xG 0.44–0.70 (39%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Schaefer11:43
xG 0.71–0.44 (62%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- DeAngelo – Schaefer2:54
xG 0.22–0.05 (82%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Pelech3:15
xG 0.08–0.17 (32%)attempts 1–1goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).