Sat, Jan 24, 2026·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Columbus Blue Jackets 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 28 | 210 | 112 | 530 |
| CBJ | 411 | 216 | 24 | 831 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:47CBJCole SillingerAssists: Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 7:48TBLJake GuentzelUnassisted · Wrist, 0.00 xG1–1
- P1 8:37CBJMason MarchmentAssists: Erik Gudbranson · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P1 10:01TBLDarren RaddyshPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Jake Guentzel · Slap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P1 18:33CBJAdam FantilliAssists: Kirill Marchenko, Mason Marchment · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P1 19:47CBJDmitri VoronkovUnassisted · Snap, 0.14 xG2–4
- P2 3:29TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–4
- P2 4:58TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brandon Hagel · Snap, 0.13 xG4–4
- P2 9:05CBJMason MarchmentAssists: Zach Werenski, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–5
- P2 18:57CBJCharlie CoylePPGWGAssists: Adam Fantilli, Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–6
- P3 14:55CBJSean MonahanENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–7
- P3 18:54TBLJake GuentzelAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Anthony Cirelli · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–7
- P3 19:35CBJMason MarchmentENAssists: Adam Fantilli, Kirill Marchenko · Wrist, 0.70 xG5–8
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:28CBJIvan Provorov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 13:13CBJDmitri Voronkov: Interference2 min
- P2 6:59TBLYanni Gourde: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:59CBJMason Marchment: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:00TBLDeclan Carlile: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:47TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Fantilli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Guentzel – James4:03
xG 0.30–0.08 (80%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Bjorkstrand – Paul – Pelletier9:08
xG 0.15–0.14 (51%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Cirelli – Hagel8:19
xG 0.27–0.36 (43%)attempts 9–9goals 2–1
- Guentzel – Goncalves – James3:28
xG 0.00–0.28 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Raddysh – Carlile2:59
xG 0.04–0.00 (99%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Raddysh – Moser13:26
xG 0.46–0.43 (51%)attempts 19–11goals 0–2
- Cernak – D'Astous4:51
xG 0.12–0.11 (51%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestJenner – Monahan – Johnson9:44
xG 0.45–0.16 (73%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Heinen – Lundeström – Voronkov8:36
xG 0.23–0.11 (68%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Coyle – Olivier – Sillinger11:08
xG 0.33–0.28 (54%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Marchment – Marchenko – Fantilli12:59
xG 0.55–0.60 (48%)attempts 12–15goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Werenski17:01
xG 1.13–0.12 (91%)attempts 21–12goals 2–1
- Christiansen – Zamula5:07
xG 0.20–0.14 (59%)attempts 2–4goals 1–1
- Provorov – Zamula3:33
xG 0.17–0.15 (53%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).