Tue, Jan 27, 2026·Centre Bell, Montreal
Vegas Golden Knights 2, Montréal Canadiens 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 110 | 010 | 113 | 01 | 234 |
| MTL | 08 | 212 | 03 | 13 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:38VGKPavel DorofeyevUnassisted · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 4:24MTLPhillip DanaultAssists: Zachary Bolduc · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 8:55MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Noah Dobson, Mike Matheson · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 16:52VGKPavel DorofeyevAssists: Ben Hutton, Braeden Bowman · Tip-in, 0.04 xG2–2
- OT 3:58MTLJake EvansGWGAssists: Alexandre Texier · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P2 0:36VGKIvan Barbashev: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:31VGKAlexander Holtz: Holding2 min
- P2 16:34MTLCole Caufield: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:18MTLLane Hutson: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 1:37MTLOliver Kapanen: Interference2 min
- P3 9:01VGKShea Theodore: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:27VGKRasmus Andersson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Evans won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestMarner – Dorofeyev – Bowman10:34
xG 1.50–0.32 (82%)attempts 18–8goals 2–0
- Hertl – Barbashev – Kolesar10:09
xG 0.34–0.47 (42%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
- Smith – Stone – Eichel11:10
xG 0.50–0.69 (42%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Laczynski – Reinhardt – Holtz4:08
xG 0.02–0.39 (5%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson14:38
xG 1.32–0.50 (73%)attempts 15–17goals 1–1
- Hutton – Korczak11:34
xG 0.62–0.79 (44%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
- Theodore – Lauzon13:56
xG 0.21–0.78 (22%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Texier – Caufield9:45
xG 0.69–0.45 (61%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Gallagher – Danault – Anderson6:29
xG 0.37–0.17 (69%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Evans – Dach – Bolduc8:16
xG 0.29–0.20 (60%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Anderson – Evans – Dach2:51
xG 0.20–0.19 (51%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Dobson11:58
xG 0.85–0.66 (56%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Guhle – Hutson7:32
xG 0.38–0.19 (66%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Carrier – Xhekaj3:13
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).