Thu, Jan 29, 2026·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
Utah Mammoth 4, Carolina Hurricanes 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 08 | 313 | 14 | 425 |
| CAR | 19 | 110 | 314 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:04CARAndrei SvechnikovUnassisted · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 4:10UTAKailer YamamotoAssists: Jack McBain · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 8:24UTAKailer YamamotoAssists: Nick DeSimone, Michael Carcone · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–1
- P2 17:36CARShayne GostisbeherePPAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Seth Jarvis · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 17:55UTAJJ PeterkaAssists: Barrett Hayton · Snap, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 7:11UTAMichael CarconeAssists: Jack McBain, Kailer Yamamoto · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–2
- P3 18:01CARAndrei SvechnikovPPAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Nikolaj Ehlers · Snap, 0.11 xG4–3
- P3 18:33CARShayne GostisbehereAssists: Jackson Blake, Jaccob Slavin · Snap, 0.03 xG4–4
- P3 19:30CARJordan StaalGWGAssists: Jordan Martinook, Jalen Chatfield · Tip-in, 0.12 xG4–5
Penalties (6)
- P2 0:11UTANick Schmaltz: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:36UTAMikhail Sergachev: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:24UTAKevin Stenlund: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:45CARAndrei Svechnikov: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:45CARSean Walker: Holding2 min
- P3 14:42UTABarrett Hayton: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Aho won the faceoff against Schmaltz
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Mammoth
Forward lines
- bestCarcone – Yamamoto – McBain9:19
xG 0.86–0.52 (63%)attempts 12–7goals 3–1
- Hayton – Peterka – But9:03
xG 0.44–0.17 (72%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- O'Brien – Stenlund – Tanev7:04
xG 0.17–0.31 (35%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Crouse – Keller10:17
xG 0.52–0.74 (41%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCole – DeSimone10:34
xG 0.60–0.25 (71%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Sergachev – Durzi15:41
xG 0.87–0.79 (52%)attempts 16–15goals 2–1
- Schmidt – Marino16:24
xG 0.79–1.22 (39%)attempts 10–22goals 1–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestAho – Svechnikov – Jarvis11:02
xG 0.93–0.34 (73%)attempts 20–5goals 1–0
- Staal – Martinook – Ehlers8:55
xG 0.40–0.54 (42%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Jankowski – Carrier – Kotkaniemi7:27
xG 0.24–0.64 (27%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
- Hall – Stankoven – Blake10:14
xG 0.28–0.77 (27%)attempts 7–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Chatfield15:24
xG 1.19–0.53 (69%)attempts 23–8goals 2–1
- Walker – Miller15:56
xG 0.49–0.78 (38%)attempts 17–13goals 0–1
- Gostisbehere – Nikishin12:06
xG 0.28–1.04 (21%)attempts 10–16goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).