Thu, Jan 29, 2026·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Dallas Stars 5, Vegas Golden Knights 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 19 | 39 | 06 | 03 | 2 | 527 |
| VGK | 07 | 17 | 37 | 00 | 0 | 421 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:37DALMatt DucheneAssists: Sam Steel, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 4:07VGKKeegan KolesarAssists: Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- P2 8:46DALMavrik BourqueAssists: Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson · Snap, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 14:16DALMavrik BourqueAssists: Jamie Benn, Sam Steel · Snap, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 16:43DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Mikko Rantanen · Snap, 0.16 xG4–1
- P3 4:04VGKReilly SmithSHAssists: Keegan Kolesar · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 13:54VGKIvan BarbashevAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–3
- P3 19:11VGKMitch MarnerAssists: Tomas Hertl · Snap, 0.02 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. DAL Jason Robertson scored
- 2. VGK Pavel Dorofeyev stopped
- 3. DAL Matt Duchene stopped
- 4. VGK Jack Eichel stopped
- 5. DAL Mikko Rantanen scored
Penalties (3)
- P1 3:35DALJason Robertson: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:13VGKJeremy Lauzon: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:15VGKJack Eichel: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hintz won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHintz – Robertson – Bourque10:36
xG 0.70–0.35 (67%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Rantanen – Johnston – Hryckowian12:11
xG 0.71–0.48 (60%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Benn – Duchene – Steel9:24
xG 0.27–0.28 (49%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Faksa – Erne – Bäck9:09
xG 0.10–0.17 (37%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLundkvist – Harley16:04
xG 0.89–0.31 (74%)attempts 15–19goals 1–0
- Petrovic – Capobianco11:11
xG 0.46–0.35 (57%)attempts 12–15goals 2–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen16:06
xG 0.61–0.91 (40%)attempts 11–16goals 0–2
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- Smith – Stone – Eichel5:01
xG 0.03–0.06 (36%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Hertl – Barbashev – Kolesar4:56
xG 0.24–0.32 (43%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Marner – Dorofeyev – Bowman7:46
xG 0.34–0.43 (44%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Marner – Dorofeyev – Holtz3:12
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Korczak13:07
xG 0.44–0.27 (62%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Hanifin – Andersson17:01
xG 0.66–0.64 (51%)attempts 24–15goals 1–1
- Theodore – Lauzon16:30
xG 0.28–1.29 (18%)attempts 9–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).