Sat, Jan 31, 2026·Capital One Arena, Washington
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Washington Capitals 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 212 | 15 | 05 | 00 | 322 |
| WSH | 019 | 27 | 113 | 13 | 442 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:27CARMark JankowskiAssists: William Carrier, Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Snap, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 17:51CARSebastian AhoUnassisted · Snap, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 4:16CARShayne GostisbehereAssists: Jordan Martinook, Jordan Staal · Snap, 0.02 xG3–0
- P2 7:52WSHHendrix LapierreAssists: Sonny Milano · Snap, 0.25 xG3–1
- P2 14:58WSHDylan StromeAssists: Aliaksei Protas, Jakob Chychrun · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 13:18WSHJakob ChychrunAssists: Aliaksei Protas, Tom Wilson · Snap, 0.09 xG3–3
- OT 1:42WSHJustin SourdifGWGAssists: John Carlson, Ethen Frank · Snap, 0.29 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:21CARTaylor Hall: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:49CARTaylor Hall: Interference2 min
- P2 10:53WSHRyan Leonard: Interference2 min
- P2 11:21WSHJakob Chychrun: Interference2 min
- P2 18:27CARTaylor Hall: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 1:59CARSean Walker: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Dowd
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestJankowski – Carrier – Kotkaniemi9:27
xG 0.40–0.31 (57%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Aho – Svechnikov – Jarvis11:09
xG 0.77–1.16 (40%)attempts 13–17goals 1–0
- Hall – Stankoven – Blake11:33
xG 0.50–0.89 (36%)attempts 13–17goals 0–1
- Staal – Martinook – Ehlers10:30
xG 0.22–1.18 (16%)attempts 10–16goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- Walker – Miller18:22
xG 0.50–0.58 (46%)attempts 16–19goals 1–1
- Gostisbehere – Nikishin11:53
xG 0.47–0.80 (37%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
- Slavin – Chatfield16:31
xG 0.98–2.29 (30%)attempts 17–28goals 1–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestMilano – Duhaime – Lapierre4:27
xG 0.97–0.27 (79%)attempts 8–7goals 1–2
- Wilson – Protas – Sourdif7:04
xG 0.76–0.29 (72%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Wilson – Strome – Protas5:53
xG 0.54–0.20 (73%)attempts 7–3goals 2–0
- Ovechkin – Beauvillier – Sourdif3:35
xG 0.27–0.18 (60%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Sandin12:41
xG 1.95–0.61 (76%)attempts 22–14goals 1–1
- Carlson – Chychrun9:07
xG 0.38–0.22 (63%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Sandin6:07
xG 0.29–0.19 (61%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).