Sat, Jan 31, 2026·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Montréal Canadiens 4, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 111 | 06 | 314 | 431 |
| BUF | 011 | 212 | 015 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:20MTLJuraj SlafkovskýPPAssists: Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–0
- P2 7:36BUFOwen PowerAssists: Tage Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 18:58BUFNoah OstlundPPAssists: Alex Tuch, Bowen Byram · Slap, 0.20 xG1–2
- P3 4:14MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Noah Dobson, Lane Hutson · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 10:13MTLCole CaufieldGWGAssists: Nick Suzuki, Kirby Dach · Snap, 0.22 xG3–2
- P3 19:12MTLOliver KapanenENAssists: Noah Dobson · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:00BUFTage Thompson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 19:06BUFBowen Byram: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:58MTLLane Hutson: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:46BUFRyan McLeod: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:21MTLNoah Dobson: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:58MTLLane Hutson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:24MTLKirby Dach: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestKapanen – Slafkovský – Demidov11:00
xG 0.94–0.65 (59%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Dach – Caufield9:25
xG 0.57–0.68 (46%)attempts 8–10goals 2–0
- Evans – Veleno – Bolduc8:03
xG 0.25–0.83 (23%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Danault – Anderson8:07
xG 0.22–0.81 (22%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDobson – Hutson9:47
xG 1.04–0.12 (90%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Carrier – Guhle3:09
xG 0.30–0.07 (82%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Carrier – Xhekaj4:10
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Ostlund – Helenius8:01
xG 0.70–0.23 (75%)attempts 15–2goals 0–1
- Tuch – Thompson – Benson13:12
xG 1.03–0.58 (64%)attempts 19–13goals 0–0
- Zucker – McLeod – Quinn9:34
xG 1.08–0.80 (57%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Malenstyn – Krebs – Kozak5:49
xG 0.09–0.27 (24%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Dahlin6:48
xG 0.66–0.23 (74%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Dahlin – Power6:59
xG 0.65–0.30 (68%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Power – Metsa2:49
xG 0.28–0.00 (99%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).