Sun, Feb 1, 2026·Raymond James Stadium, TampaOutdoor game
Boston Bruins 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 6 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 320 | 29 | 05 | 00 | 0 | 534 |
| TBL | 18 | 322 | 17 | 09 | 1 | 646 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:11TBLBrandon HagelAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Darren Raddysh · Snap, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 11:24BOSAlex SteevesAssists: Michael Eyssimont · Snap, 0.19 xG1–1
- P1 15:36BOSMorgan GeekieAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Jonathan Aspirot · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–1
- P1 18:03BOSViktor ArvidssonPPAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Morgan Geekie · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 2:22BOSMatthew PoitrasAssists: Mark Kastelic · Backhand, 0.08 xG4–1
- P2 8:18BOSMorgan GeekieAssists: David Pastrnak, Marat Khusnutdinov · Slap, 0.11 xG5–1
- P2 10:28TBLOliver BjorkstrandPPAssists: Brandon Hagel, Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.19 xG5–2
- P2 15:50TBLDarren RaddyshPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brandon Hagel · Slap, 0.11 xG5–3
- P2 16:13TBLNick PaulPPAssists: Jake Guentzel, Nikita Kucherov · Tip-in, 0.16 xG5–4
- P3 11:50TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Erik Cernak · Slap, 0.03 xG5–5
Shootout
- 1. TBL Gage Goncalves stopped
- 2. BOS Fraser Minten stopped
- 3. TBL Jake Guentzel scored
- 4. BOS David Pastrnak stopped
Penalties (17)
- P1 4:57TBLDominic James: High sticking2 min
- P1 5:02BOSViktor Arvidsson: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:48TBLPontus Holmberg: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:55TBLJake Guentzel: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:07BOSCharlie McAvoy: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 10:28BOSMark Kastelic: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:01BOSJeremy Swayman: Goalie leave crease2 min
- P2 11:01TBLAndrei Vasilevskiy: Goalie leave crease2 min
- P2 11:01TBLBrandon Hagel: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:01BOSCharlie McAvoy: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:01TBLAndrei Vasilevskiy: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:01BOSJeremy Swayman: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 14:03BOSJeremy Swayman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 14:16BOSTanner Jeannot: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 15:45BOSSean Kuraly: Closing hand on puck2 min
- OT 0:18BOSDavid Pastrnak: Slashing2 min
- OT 4:35BOSHampus Lindholm: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Minten
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestPastrnak – Geekie – Khusnutdinov12:13
xG 0.79–0.39 (67%)attempts 11–13goals 2–0
- Jeannot – Kastelic – Poitras9:31
xG 0.45–0.20 (69%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Kuraly – Eyssimont – Steeves6:31
xG 0.62–0.44 (58%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
- Arvidsson – Mittelstadt – Minten10:38
xG 0.47–0.41 (53%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Lohrei11:52
xG 0.88–0.24 (79%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Lindholm – McAvoy2:08
xG 0.17–0.02 (92%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Zadorov – Peeke11:53
xG 0.44–0.36 (55%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Guentzel – Hagel10:03
xG 0.61–0.25 (71%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1
- Bjorkstrand – Goncalves – James5:08
xG 0.10–0.15 (40%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Guentzel – Goncalves – James2:36
xG 0.01–0.07 (11%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Cirelli – Hagel3:09
xG 0.20–0.38 (35%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Hedman – Crozier3:08
xG 0.28–0.23 (55%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- McDonagh – Cernak9:04
xG 0.30–0.29 (51%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1
- Hedman – Cernak2:04
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).