Mon, Feb 2, 2026·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Ottawa Senators 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 013 | 19 | 29 | 331 |
| PIT | 17 | 03 | 16 | 216 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:57PITEgor ChinakhovAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Parker Wotherspoon · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P2 1:35OTTMichael AmadioAssists: Tyler Kleven, Shane Pinto · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P3 6:46OTTTim StützleAssists: Drake Batherson, Jordan Spence · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 8:48PITTommy NovakAssists: Ryan Shea, Egor Chinakhov · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–2
- P3 14:52OTTClaude GirouxGWGAssists: Tim Stützle, Drake Batherson · Deflected, 0.86 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:47PITRickard Rakell: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 15:44PITIlya Solovyov: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:25PITParker Wotherspoon: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:31PITConnor Clifton: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:51OTTNick Cousins: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:52PITRutger McGroarty: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cozens won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Batherson – Stützle8:19
xG 1.46–0.71 (67%)attempts 7–7goals 2–0
- Cousins – Amadio – Pinto9:02
xG 0.52–0.09 (86%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Tkachuk – Cozens – Greig7:04
xG 0.63–0.28 (69%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Cousins – Amadio – Greig2:18
xG 0.32–0.10 (76%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanderson – Zub16:21
xG 1.97–0.12 (94%)attempts 16–4goals 1–0
- Spence – Kleven10:53
xG 0.67–0.35 (66%)attempts 15–5goals 2–0
- Jensen – Chabot13:28
xG 0.62–0.97 (39%)attempts 13–14goals 0–2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMantha – McGroarty – Kindel4:27
xG 0.68–0.21 (77%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Acciari – Dewar – Lizotte5:56
xG 0.38–0.09 (81%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Brazeau – McGroarty – Kindel4:52
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rakell – Brazeau5:31
xG 0.05–0.26 (15%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWotherspoon – Shea3:26
xG 0.57–0.15 (79%)attempts 6–4goals 2–1
- Kulak – Shea8:54
xG 0.05–0.17 (22%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Clifton – Solovyov9:46
xG 0.22–0.74 (23%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).