Mon, Feb 2, 2026·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Ottawa Senators 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 88% of the time.
84%
PIT winsOTT wins
Ottawa Senators
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 28:02 | 0.24 | 83.4% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:34 | 0.02 | 92.7% | 0.0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 4 | 20:46 | 0.41 | 67.8% | +56.7 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 20:45 | 0.53 | 87.4% | +20.7 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 2 | 20:41 | 0.07 | 41.1% | 0.0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 18:59 | 0.18 | 81.1% | +20.7 | |
| 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 17:12 | 0.28 | 67.6% | +56.7 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 2 | 17:09 | 0.47 | 70.5% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 4 | 16:31 | 0.72 | 73.9% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 1 | 16:31 | 0.02 | 64.8% | +23.6 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 2 | 16:20 | 0.18 | 71.6% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 15:39 | 0.07 | 83.8% | 0.0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 3 | 14:25 | 1.29 | 69.4% | +33.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 0 | 14:14 | 0.00 | 36.2% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 12:37 | 0.07 | 65.6% | +20.7 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 9:33 | 0.00 | 20.7% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 9:16 | 0.12 | 36.1% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 6:46 | 0.22 | 27.1% | 0.0 |
| W | 16 | 14 | 2 | .875 | 2.10 | +0.1 | 60:00 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 3 | 27:20 | 0.17 | 28.7% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22:01 | 0.01 | 9.8% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 20:00 | 0.12 | 55.4% | +24.6 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 19:35 | 0.00 | 8.2% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 19:01 | 0.00 | 7.7% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:49 | 0.00 | 44.0% | +14.5 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 3 | 16:47 | 0.55 | 32.4% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:52 | 0.13 | 70.4% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 15:52 | 0.00 | 20.0% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15:51 | 0.01 | 34.6% | +14.5 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:29 | 0.06 | 56.3% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:28 | 0.00 | 12.7% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:51 | 0.12 | 53.0% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 12:31 | 0.00 | 20.7% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12:19 | 0.26 | 68.4% | 0.0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 12:12 | 0.30 | 34.6% | +39.1 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11:52 | 0.25 | 30.7% | +24.6 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:37 | 0.13 | 65.0% | 0.0 |
| L | 31 | 28 | 3 | .903 | 4.72 | +1.7 | 57:33 |