Tue, Feb 3, 2026·UBS Arena, Elmont
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, New York Islanders 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 111 | 212 | 112 | 00 | 435 |
| NYI | 210 | 05 | 27 | 11 | 523 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:09PITAnthony ManthaAssists: Justin Brazeau · Snap, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 18:41NYIBo HorvatAssists: Anders Lee · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 19:56NYIMatthew SchaeferAssists: Ondrej Palat, Bo Horvat · Slap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 3:52PITEgor ChinakhovAssists: Tommy Novak, Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 14:09PITBryan RustAssists: Sidney Crosby, Ilya Solovyov · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 8:37NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Adam Pelech · Slap, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 10:40PITJustin BrazeauAssists: Brett Kulak · Tip-in, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 15:24NYIRyan PulockAssists: Mathew Barzal, Simon Holmstrom · Snap, 0.07 xG4–4
- OT 0:52NYIBo HorvatGWGAssists: Mathew Barzal, Matthew Schaefer · Snap, 0.15 xG4–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:54NYIScott Mayfield: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:08PITErik Karlsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 18:07NYICarson Soucy: Holding2 min
- P3 11:52PITSidney Crosby: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Rakell12:55
xG 1.03–0.26 (80%)attempts 21–9goals 1–1
- Mantha – Brazeau – Kindel9:58
xG 0.98–0.34 (74%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Malkin – Novak – Chinakhov11:36
xG 0.67–0.20 (77%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Acciari – Dewar – Lizotte8:17
xG 0.28–0.04 (88%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClifton – Solovyov12:55
xG 1.27–0.30 (81%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- Karlsson – Wotherspoon18:23
xG 0.94–0.36 (72%)attempts 21–14goals 2–0
- Kulak – Shea16:29
xG 0.90–0.55 (62%)attempts 16–14goals 0–2
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestDrouin – Holmstrom – Heineman2:37
xG 0.10–0.04 (75%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Lee – Pageau – Duclair2:13
xG 0.09–0.02 (78%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Pageau – Holmstrom – Heineman2:18
xG 0.04–0.05 (44%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Lee – Gatcomb2:06
xG 0.01–0.10 (6%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – DeAngelo14:02
xG 0.57–0.40 (59%)attempts 17–6goals 2–1
- Mayfield – Schaefer2:16
xG 0.00–0.01 (26%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- DeAngelo – Schaefer3:57
xG 0.12–0.20 (38%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).