Tue, Feb 3, 2026·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
Ottawa Senators 3, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 111 | 110 | 16 | 327 |
| CAR | 19 | 28 | 12 | 419 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:46OTTStephen HallidayAssists: Jordan Spence, Lars Eller · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 17:49CARSebastian AhoAssists: K'Andre Miller · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 12:39CARSeth JarvisPPAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Sebastian Aho · Slap, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 15:41CARSeth JarvisAssists: Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
- P2 16:21OTTTim StützlePPAssists: Jake Sanderson, Dylan Cozens · Slap, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 4:57OTTJake SandersonPPAssists: Drake Batherson, Dylan Cozens · Slap, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 14:53CARJordan StaalGWGAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers · Snap, 0.10 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:58OTTFabian Zetterlund: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:41CARAndrei Svechnikov: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:33OTTStephen Halliday: Broken stick2 min · PPG
- P2 15:47CARWilliam Carrier: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 4:05CARMark Jankowski: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cozens won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTkachuk – Cozens – Greig11:21
xG 0.52–0.17 (75%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Eller – Zetterlund – Halliday5:12
xG 0.37–0.06 (87%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Cousins – Amadio – Pinto11:40
xG 0.83–0.79 (51%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Giroux – Batherson – Stützle9:10
xG 0.30–0.34 (47%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Chabot16:45
xG 0.63–0.22 (74%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Spence – Kleven14:32
xG 0.75–0.46 (62%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Sanderson – Zub15:25
xG 1.21–1.12 (52%)attempts 21–20goals 0–3
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- Staal – Martinook – Ehlers12:37
xG 0.24–0.43 (36%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Jankowski – Carrier – Kotkaniemi8:00
xG 0.19–0.40 (33%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Hall – Stankoven – Blake13:54
xG 0.72–0.93 (43%)attempts 19–17goals 0–0
- Aho – Svechnikov – Jarvis11:25
xG 0.56–0.88 (39%)attempts 10–11goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Chatfield15:23
xG 0.65–0.53 (55%)attempts 13–10goals 2–0
- Gostisbehere – Nikishin13:32
xG 0.57–1.14 (33%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
- Walker – Miller20:20
xG 0.35–1.07 (25%)attempts 15–19goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).