Wed, Feb 4, 2026·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Montréal Canadiens 5, Winnipeg Jets 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 111 | 29 | 27 | 527 |
| WPG | 113 | 013 | 011 | 137 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:07WPGKyle ConnorPPAssists: Gabriel Vilardi, Mark Scheifele · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 16:26MTLOliver KapanenAssists: Noah Dobson, Juraj Slafkovský · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 5:28MTLJosh AndersonGWGAssists: Jayden Struble, Brendan Gallagher · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 6:44MTLLane HutsonAssists: Josh Anderson, Brendan Gallagher · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 10:57MTLBrendan GallagherPPAssists: Kirby Dach, Zachary Bolduc · Snap, 0.22 xG4–1
- P3 19:46MTLPhillip DanaultENAssists: Josh Anderson, Noah Dobson · Wrist, 0.74 xG5–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:49MTLJosh Anderson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:48WPGGustav Nyquist: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:24MTLZachary Bolduc: Interference2 min
- P3 2:01MTLAlexandre Carrier: Holding2 min
- P3 9:00WPGJosh Morrissey: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 18:12MTLBrendan Gallagher: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestEvans – Veleno – Bolduc7:49
xG 0.43–0.09 (82%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Kapanen – Slafkovský – Demidov9:21
xG 0.60–0.29 (67%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Gallagher – Danault – Anderson7:37
xG 0.67–1.34 (33%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Suzuki – Dach – Caufield12:18
xG 0.16–0.86 (16%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Guhle14:35
xG 0.62–0.52 (54%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Dobson – Hutson14:35
xG 0.44–0.63 (41%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Carrier – Struble9:13
xG 0.38–1.79 (18%)attempts 11–19goals 1–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestToews – Niederreiter – Namestnikov8:57
xG 1.34–0.39 (77%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Lowry – Vilardi – Perfetti10:40
xG 0.50–0.24 (67%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
- Nyquist – Scheifele – Connor4:41
xG 0.22–0.10 (69%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Barron – Koepke3:57
xG 0.00–0.42 (1%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamberg – Salomonsson10:58
xG 1.62–0.34 (83%)attempts 22–11goals 0–1
- Schenn – Samberg2:36
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Morrissey – Stanley2:11
xG 0.04–0.10 (30%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).