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Ice Lab

Thu, Feb 5, 2026·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa

Florida Panthers 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 6

Away

Florida Panthers

1

Final

Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 57% of the time.

TBL winsFLA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
FLA0190916134
TBL27211210628

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:08TBLBrandon HagelAssists: Victor Hedman · Tip-in, 0.05 xG0–1
  2. P1 14:08TBLZemgus GirgensonsGWGAssists: Pontus Holmberg, Yanni Gourde · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–2
  3. P2 1:14TBLJake GuentzelPPAssists: Darren Raddysh, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–3
  4. P2 17:50TBLErik CernakAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Dominic James · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG0–4
  5. P3 6:09TBLPontus HolmbergAssists: Gage Goncalves, Oliver Bjorkstrand · Poke, 0.11 xG0–5
  6. P3 9:50FLAMackie SamoskevichPPAssists: Jesper Boqvist, Anton Lundell · Snap, 0.06 xG1–5
  7. P3 15:41TBLOliver BjorkstrandUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–6
Penalties (33)
  1. P1 15:14TBLNikita Kucherov: Cross checking2 min
  2. P1 15:50TBLZemgus Girgensons: Tripping2 min
  3. P1 18:58TBLDominic James: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 18:58FLAMackie Samoskevich: Roughing2 min
  5. P1 18:58TBLGage Goncalves: Roughing2 min
  6. P1 18:58FLAJesper Boqvist: Roughing2 min
  7. P1 0:00FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Abuse of officials2 min · PPG
  8. P2 10:48FLAAnton Lundell: Interference2 min
  9. P2 14:20TBLNikita Kucherov: Slashing2 min
  10. P2 16:06FLASam Bennett: Roughing2 min
  11. P2 16:06TBLJ.J. Moser: Roughing2 min
  12. P2 16:06FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
  13. P2 16:06TBLVictor Hedman: Roughing2 min
  14. P3 4:06FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Interference2 min
  15. P3 4:06FLANiko Mikkola: Interference2 min
  16. P3 4:06FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
  17. P3 4:06FLAGustav Forsling: Fighting5 min
  18. P3 4:06TBLJ.J. Moser: Fighting5 min
  19. P3 4:06TBLBrandon Hagel: Fighting5 min
  20. P3 4:06FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Game misconduct10 min
  21. P3 4:06TBLJ.J. Moser: Game misconduct10 min
  22. P3 4:06FLADonovan Sebrango: Misconduct10 min
  23. P3 4:06FLAGustav Forsling: Game misconduct10 min
  24. P3 4:06FLASam Bennett: Misconduct10 min
  25. P3 4:06TBLJake Guentzel: Misconduct10 min
  26. P3 4:06TBLNikita Kucherov: Misconduct10 min
  27. P3 4:06FLA: Game misconduct head coach0 min
  28. P3 4:06TBLYanni Gourde: Misconduct10 min
  29. P3 4:06TBLDarren Raddysh: Misconduct10 min
  30. P3 4:06FLACarter Verhaeghe: Misconduct10 min
  31. P3 6:33TBLCurtis Douglas: Fighting5 min · PPG
  32. P3 6:33TBLCurtis Douglas: Aggressor10 min
  33. P3 16:05TBLDeclan Carlile: Cross checking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

FLA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TBL
47% to win53% to win
← FLA attackTBL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Lundell won the faceoff against Gourde
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

FLATBL
34Shots on goal28
3.0Expected goals2.6
67Shot attempts42
31Faceoffs won25
6Power plays4
76Penalty minutes91
17Hits34
5Blocked shots16
16Giveaways18
3Takeaways5

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Florida Panthers

Forward lines

  1. bestGreer – Schwindt – Vilmanis8:04

    xG 0.35–0.03 (93%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0

  2. Kunin – Boqvist – Samoskevich6:14

    xG 0.40–0.10 (80%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0

  3. Verhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk8:02

    xG 0.51–0.38 (57%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1

  4. Reinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell9:57

    xG 0.16–0.24 (40%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestPetry – Forsling8:57

    xG 0.81–0.35 (70%)attempts 17–7goals 0–2

  2. Mikkola – Balinskis9:16

    xG 0.65–0.26 (71%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0

  3. Petry – Sebrango2:12

    xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0

Tampa Bay Lightning

Forward lines

  1. bestGourde – Girgensons – Holmberg7:41

    xG 0.38–0.27 (58%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0

  2. Girgensons – Bjorkstrand – Holmberg2:31

    xG 0.16–0.14 (52%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0

  3. Sabourin – Goncalves – James2:39

    xG 0.00–0.07 (3%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0

  4. Kucherov – Guentzel – Hagel11:10

    xG 0.13–0.25 (35%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestRaddysh – Carlile2:40

    xG 0.12–0.04 (77%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0

  2. Raddysh – Moser10:43

    xG 0.29–0.33 (46%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0

  3. Hedman – Carlile8:21

    xG 0.25–0.43 (37%)attempts 5–10goals 2–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TBL 2.6 xGFLA 3.0 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TBLFLA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 13/100 · #1188 of 1312 this seasonSwing 0.52 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 53% (winner's lowest chance)
FLA 100%5050%50TBL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +13 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 57% of the time.

TBL winsFLA wins

Simulated goal difference (TBL − FLA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).