Thu, Feb 26, 2026·Ball Arena, Denver
Minnesota Wild 5, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 010 | 217 | 39 | 536 |
| COL | 013 | 114 | 120 | 247 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:48MINJoel Eriksson EkPPAssists: Matt Boldy, Kirill Kaprizov · Snap, 0.21 xG1–0
- P2 13:30COLMartin NecasAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Josh Manson · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 17:37MINJoel Eriksson EkPPAssists: Matt Boldy, Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 15:08MINMats ZuccarelloGWGAssists: Ryan Hartman, Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 16:38MINMatt BoldyENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.43 xG4–1
- P3 19:03COLMartin NecasAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog · Snap, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 19:28MINMatt BoldyENAssists: Brock Faber, Jake Middleton · Wrist, 0.67 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:41MINDaemon Hunt: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:38COLJosh Manson: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:03COLGabriel Landeskog: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:49COLCale Makar: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 14:15COLGabriel Landeskog: Elbowing2 min
- P2 15:04COLValeri Nichushkin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:08COLBrent Burns: Delaying game2 min
- P3 12:36MINNico Sturm: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:12MINDanila Yurov: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov9:05
xG 0.75–0.45 (63%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy9:49
xG 0.55–0.41 (57%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Foligno – Hinostroza – Sturm5:21
xG 0.15–0.50 (23%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Trenin – Yurov8:11
xG 0.27–0.67 (28%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Middleton2:18
xG 0.24–0.16 (60%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Middleton11:09
xG 0.33–0.28 (54%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Hunt6:54
xG 0.24–0.50 (33%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestNelson – Lehkonen – Nichushkin6:16
xG 0.57–0.18 (76%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Colton – Drury3:51
xG 0.14–0.01 (92%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Necas13:42
xG 0.87–0.76 (53%)attempts 24–10goals 1–0
- Kelly – Kiviranta – Brindley2:01
xG 0.00–0.01 (22%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar16:20
xG 1.07–0.85 (56%)attempts 26–10goals 0–0
- Burns – Manson11:04
xG 0.42–0.34 (55%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
- Kulak – Malinski11:32
xG 0.52–0.65 (44%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).